高天阅读材料2016.docx

PAGE27 / NUMPAGES27 高等天气学阅读课材料 丁一汇编写 一、数值天气预报的原理、发展和未来 二、次季节到季节（S2S）与一体化地球系统的研究和未来发展 时间安排：4月26日（周二）第三、四节课 要求： （1）课堂上阅读全文（见阅读课材料） （2）每位同学书面提出1-2个相关问题（署名），4月29日课堂上交给丁老师 （3）5月下旬对所提问题结合高天17-18讲进行课堂讨论（1-2节课） 一、数值天气预报的原理、发展和未来 参考文献 （1）Peter Bauer ,Alan Thoroe and Gilbert Brunet，2015：The quiet revolution of numerical weather prediction . Nature, Vol. 525, No. 7567,47-55 （2） David Kramer, 2016: Europeans shine in weather forecasting, Physics Toady, Vol.21, 22-24 （3）J. Schalkwijk et al., 2015: Weather forecasting uses GPU-based large eddy simulation. Bull Amer. Meteo. Soc. Vol. 96, No. 5,P.715-723 (4) Thompson , P. D.， 1957： Uncertainty of initial state as a factor in the predictability of large scal atmospheric flow pattern： Tellus, 9,275-295 (5) Lorenz, E. N., 1963：Deterministic non-periodical flow. J. Atmos. Sci.,20,130-141 (6) Palmer, T. N., 2012：Towards the probabilistic Earth –system simulation, a vision for the future of climate and weather prediction. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc, 138, 841-861 (7) Hoskins ,B. ,2013:The potential for skill across the range of the seamless weather –climate prediction problem: a stimulus for our science . Q. J. R. Meteorol. Aoc, 139,523-584 (8) Yu, H., Chen, P., Li, Q Tang, B, 2013: Current capability of operational numerical models in predicting tropical cyclone intensity in the western North Pacific. Weather Forecasting ,38,353-367 (9) Hong, S. Y. J. D., 2012: Next-generation numerical weather prediction: bringing parametrization ,explicit clouds and large eddies. Bull. Amer, Meteorol, Soc,93, ES6-ES9 (10) Lorenc, A.C., Bowler, N. E., Clayton, A.M., Pring, S.R. Fairbaim .D., 2015: Comparison of hybrid-4D En Var and hybrid -4D Var data assimilation method for global NWP. Mon. Wea. Rev., 143,212-229 (11) Hurrell, J. et al.,2009: A unified modeling approach to climate system prediction. Bull. Am. Meteorl. Soc., 90, 1819-1832 (12) WMO, 2015: Seamless prediction of the earth system : From minutes to months. WMO. No. 1156 (13) Simm