石油武器：解析中国能源脆弱性之谜.pdf

The Oil Weapon: Myth of China’s Vulnerability Bruce Blair, Chen Yali, and Eric Hagt The Sword of Damocles The geopolitical canvass on which China plots its strategy for energy secu- rity displays a ubiquitous presence of one country: the United States. Chinese energy security planners must reckon with America’s ravenous consumption of imported oil, its strategic alliances with other heavy importers of oil in Asia, its overseas military operations in the heart of the world’s leading oil produc- ing region, its naval dominion over the world’s oil transportation routes, and the global domination of U.S. oil companies or multinational oil companies heavily capitalized by American investment. This is the context in which China pursues its energy security, sometimes blandly described as ‘conserva- tion and diversification of supply’, which masks the nation’s real struggle to satisfy its rapidly growing energy needs without exposing its energy lifelines to external forces that may, intentionally or not, betray China’s interests. Chinese planners view oil as a strategic political commodity that requires a national plan to ensure its reliable flow from abroad, and cringe at the thought of surrendering its provision to foreign control of any stripe. Whether this is foreign business interests driven by the profit motive, the vagaries of the ‘invisible hand’ marketplace, unaccountable and faceless transnational deci- sion-makers, American foreign policy pressure, or U.S. naval warships, China’s Bruce G. Blair is the president of the World Security Institute in Washington, D.C. Chen Yali is the editor-in-chief of Washington Observer and Eric Hagt is the director of the China Program at the World Security Institute. China Security, Summer 2006, pp.32 - 63 ©2006 by