概率论统计与计算机模拟-lecture2-YapingWang.pdf

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概率论统计与计算机模拟-lecture2-YapingWang.pdf

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概率论统计与计算机模拟-lecture2-YapingWang

Probability, Statistics and MC Simulation Yaping Wang (王亚平) Institute of Particle Physics, Central China Normal University E_Mail: wangyp@phy.ccnu.edu.cn Phone (Office): 027 Purpose of the course: •  Systematically introduce concepts and terminology of probability, statistics •  Tell what is computer simulation (Monte Carlo Simulation) Chapter 1 . Probability and Statistics 1. 1 Random phenomena: Examples: (a) Tossing coin (b) Rolling dice (c) Gambling games (playing cards) (d) Purpose of taking the course…. Random phenomena （）: 随机现象个别试验中的结果是不确定的，但⼤量重复试验的结果即出现某种规律性（统计规律性）。 So random phenomena are very popular in our daily life. 2016.2.24 MC - Undergraduate Students 2 Chapter 1 . Probability and Statistics 1. 2 Fundamental concepts of Prob. Terminology: ● Experiment : we perform repeatedly, know all possible outcomes, but don’t know which particular outcome happen. ● Event : a possible outcome of the experiment. ● Sample : is a list of all possible outcomes, or results of the experiment. ● Sample space : the set of all possible outcomes, or results of the experiment. 2016.2.24 MC - Undergraduate Students 3 Chapter 1 . Probability and Statistics Definitions : ●Probability : a given exp. is assumed to have a certain number of possible outcomes. Suppose we repeat the identical experiment n times and find outcome E n(E ) times. i i The probability of E is p(E ) ,