风险评价数学2 泊松.ppt

* Binomial probability distributions are important because they allow us to deal with circumstances in which the outcomes belong to TWO categories, such as pass/fall, acceptable/defective, etc. page 196 of text * The word success is arbitrary and does not necessarily represent something GOOD. If you are trying to find the probability of deaths from hang-gliding, the ‘success’ probability is that of dying from hang-gliding. Remind students to carefully look at the probability (percentage or rate) provided and whether it matches the probability desired in the question. It might be necessary to determine the complement of the given probability to establish the ‘p’ value of the problem. Page 197 of the text. * Page 197 of the text. * Page 197 of the text. * Page 198 of the text. * page 199 of text * Page 200 of the text. * Page 200 of the text. （b）在均值上下各的范围是多少？ 应用泊松分布解题的步骤如下： ①检查前提假设是否成立。最主要的条件是在每一标准单位内所指的事件发生的概率是常数；泊松分布用来计算标准单位（一张照片、一只机翼、一块材料等等）内的缺陷数、交通死亡人数等等，在排队理论中占有重要的地位。 ②确定变量，求出λ值； ③求对应个别K的泊松分布概率； ④求若干个K的泊松分布概率的总和； ⑤求泊松分布的均值和方差； ⑥画出概率分布和累积分布图。 Dr. Wallodi Weibull The Weibull distribution is by far the world’s most popular statistical model for life data（寿命数据）. It is also used in many other applications, such as weather forecasting and fitting data of all kinds（数据拟合）. Among all statistical techniques it may be employed for engineering analysis with smaller sample sizes than any other method. Having researched and applied this method for almost half a century。 Waloddi Weibull was born on June 18, 1887. His family originally came from Schleswig-Holstein, at that time closely connected with Denmark. There were a number of famous scientists and historians in the family. His own career as an engineer and scientist is certainly an unusual one. He was a midshipman in the Royal Swedish Coast Guard in 1904 was promoted to sublieutenant in 1907, Captain in 1916, and Major in 1940. He took courses at the Royal Institute of Technology where he later became a full