有关转折性天气降水预报检验方法分析.doc

有关转折性天气降水预报检验方法分析 Analysis of the transition weather precipitation forecast test method 21世纪以来，全球各个国家皆加大了关于气候预告作业的注重，不断推进新的预告技能以及预告形式在预告作业中的使用，并且还加强了关于不一样的预告形式的才能查验作业，力求经过对不一样的预告办法进行使用以及查验评价，晋升各种气候预告作业的精准性、严谨性与稳定性。而出于完善我国的气候预告作业的意图，也对预告才能的查验作业进行了探求，此探求是以作业者对转机性气候的降水进行预告查验作为切入点来展开的，对相关内容进行了详细地剖析。 Since twenty-first Century, global each country is increased about the weather forecast operation attention, continue to promote the new trailer and trailer in the form of notice to use skills in operation, and has also strengthened on different notice form to check work, strive after use and inspection evaluation of different forecast methods, promotion of various climate notice the operation accuracy, preciseness and stability. Due to perfect our weather forecast operation intention, also explore the operation inspection notice to explore, this is operator to turn to climate of the precipitation forecast inspection to expand as the breakthrough point, has carried on the detailed analysis of the related content. 从气候作业者关于转机性气候的界说层面来讲，其转机性的降水预告指的是预告人员关于整个的气候进行的由没有降水到呈现降水，或者是对降水从有转变为无的气候情况的预告，如气候作业者预告第一天有降水，而第二天则没有降水，这便代表着转机气候的呈现。气候作业当时还遭到各种因素的约束，而简单呈现空包或漏报的情况，查验作业所要做的就是检查预告与各种气候实况之间相符合的程度。　　 From climate operators on transit climate of the definition of terms, the change of precipitation forecast refers to the notice on the climate of personnel by no precipitation to precipitation, or on the precipitation from into climate without notice, such as climate operator notice first day precipitation, and the second day no precipitation, which represents the transfer climate show. Climate operation was also restricted factors, while the present simply empty package or omission, between the inspection work has to do is check in advance and various climate live consistent degree. 详细来讲，以CNA（1）来表明预告气候与实况气候所呈现出的转机情况一样的次数，以CNS（2）表明实况气候转机总数，而CNY（3）表明预告气候转机总数，其预告评分的数值核算是以“1^（2+3-1）”得出的，而预告的空报率则是以“（3-1）^（3）”核算出的，漏报率则是以“2-1^（2）”得出的。 More specifically, CNA ( 1 ) to indicate the n