王小鲁：经济增长、收入分配与结构调整.ppt

王小鲁 中国改革基金会国民经济研究所 Wang Xiaolu, National Economic Research Institute, China Reform Foundation 经济增长、收入分配与结构调整Economic Growth, Income Distribution and Structural Rebalance 资本增速，经济减速 Faster capital growth, slower GDP growth 严重的产能过剩 Serious overcapacity(capacity utilization rate in industry) 资本生产率下降 Rapid drop of capital productivity APK MPK 1980 0.454 0.499 1990 0.480 0.328 2000 0.505 0.468 2010 0.376 0.234 2013 0.297 0.146 投资-消费结构失衡Structural imbalance between saving and consumption (% of GDP) 投资扩张与化石能源消费Growth of fossil energy consumption fixed capital formation 大量能源消费与空气污染—北京Air pollution in Beijing 全国的空气污染Air pollution in China Government SOE investment played a leading role in investment growth 1/3 by government and SOEs GDP and investment are still the most important goals for local governments Indicating needs for changing government incentive mechanism and behavior 大量投资与政府行为相关Massive investment gov. behavior Excessive saving/investment and insufficiency of domestic consumption is also a result of income distribution imbalance Due to changing distribution pattern of national income Also relates to income inequality 结构失衡与收入分配相关 Structural imbalance income distribution 国民收入分配：政府、企业、居民Income distribution: government, corporations and households 收入差距急剧扩大（基尼系数）Enlarging income inequality (Gini) A 10 percentage point reduction of savings/capital formation rates and same increase of consumption rate will lead to a more inclusive sustainable growth without lower growth rate To achieve this, policy adjustment and institutional reforms are needed 保持增长需要结构调整和体制改革We need structural rebalance 市场配置资源 Market to play decisive roles in resource allocation 减少政府干预 Reduce government intervention 改善收入分配 Improve income distribution for common affluence 公共服务均等化 Equalize provision of public services 三中全会关于改革的决定Reforms: the CCP central committee decision, Nov. 2013 财税体制改革Reform fiscal taxation systems for transparency， better transfer payment fa