公路客运量的回归分析和研究预测.pdf

Advances in Social Sciences 社会科学前沿, 2017, 6(2), 151-160 Published Online February 2017 in Hans. /journal/ass /10.12677/ass.2017.62020 Regression Analysis and Prediction of Highway Passenger Volume Dandan Shen Shanghai Maritime University, Shanghai st th nd Received: Feb. 1 , 2017; accepted: Feb. 19 , 2017; published: Feb. 22 , 2017 Abstract With the development of economy and the increase of living standard, China has paid more atten- tion on the infrastructure of highway transportation. This paper applies the related data of the passenger capacity of the highway transportation from 1981 to 2015 to analyze the factors influ- enced the passenger capacity of the highway transportation. It takes the population, GDP, agricul- tural GDP and the civil car ownership as the independent variables, and the passenger capacity of the highway transportation as the dependent variable to establish the multivariate regression model with MATLAB. At the same time, the rationality of the regress model is also analyzed in this essay. We have fitted various factors of the multivariate regress model in consideration of the complexity, verified and improved the multivariate regress model with stepwise regression in or- der to enhance the scientificity and accuracy of the model. In the final step, the passenger capacity of the highway transportation from 2011 to 2015 has been calculated by the regress model of un- ivariate and multivariate, and a comparison has been made between the calculated date and the actual data which aims to analyze the difference and errors. Keywords Passenger Capacity of the Highway Traffic, Regression Model, Stepwise Regression, The Civil Car Own