地球自转、断层形变与地震活动关系研究.doc

PAGE PAGE 8 地球自转、断层形变与地震活动关系研究基金项目： 基金项目：中国地震局十五项目，课题编号10-5-08-06 作者简介：薄万举，男，1957年生，研究员，从事地壳形变与地震预报研究工作 薄万举1) 王广余2） 1）中国地震局第一监测中心，天津 300180 2）中国地震局应急搜救中心，北京 100039 摘 要 本文对地球自转、断层形变和地震活动三者各自的活动性规律进行了比较，对三者之间的相关性进行了分析，得出了几点新的看法和认识：1.地球自转速度变化与地壳形变相关，近30年来存在准10年周期的变化,但相关成分在总的形变信息中比重很小,呈弱相关；2.地球自转速度变慢、日长变长、华北地震活跃，据此认为目前华北未处于强震活动期；3.强震中短期前兆在形变资料中有较好的显示，但在地球自转资料中不会出现特定地震的中短期前兆异常。4. 地球自转速度变化与地壳形变可能是同源关系，不是从属关系，有互补性。5. 华北最近的两个地震活动高潮期与地球自转变化的十年以上周期相关，认为地震活动与地球自转变化有关系，但不同区域会有不同的对应关系。同样是地球自转速度变慢，因不同区域地壳与地幔的耦合关系不一样，速度变化对不同区域地壳活动的影响也肯定不一样。 关键词：地球自转， 断层形变， 地震活动， 中长期预测 Researches on the relations among earth rotation, fault deformation and earthquake activities Bo Wanju1）， Wang Guangyu2） 1）First Crust Monitoring and Application Center, CEA, Tianjin 300180 2）Emergency and Salvaging Center, CEA, Beijing 100039 Abstract In this paper, the variations of earth rotation, fault deformation and earthquake activities have been studied and the relativities among them are analyzed. Some new results are given here: 1. The variation of the earth rotation speed is related with the crust deformation. There is an approximately 10-year period variation in near 30 years, and the relational component between them is small, showing an weak relation; 2. When the speed of earth rotation is slowing, the length of day is lengthening, and then the earthquake in North China is being active. So it is not in earthquake active period in North China at present; 3.The medium- and short-term precursor can be shown in fault deformation data, but it can’t in the earth rotation data for given earthquake. 4. The relationship between the rotation and the deformation is an affinal, not a consequent, and they are compensated each other. 5. In North China, the recent two earthquake active period is related with the 10-year or longer period of the earth rotational variation, so there are some relation between earthquake activities and the earth rotation. But the relations are different in different area. Be