RBC的进一步发展_挑战.ppt

BRC的一点补充材料 徐现祥 主要内容 RBC建模的一般步骤 假设 一般均衡 校准（Calibration） 模型的波动特征Vs实际波动特征 K－P模型的标准差和相关系数 Hansen不可分劳动模型 有政府支出和税收的RBC RBC的进一步发展 RBC理论的起源 RBC理论面临的挑战 材料来源于Rebelo（2005） RBC的进一步发展_起源 Finn Kydland and Edward Prescott introduced three revolutionary ideas in their 1982 paper, “Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations.” business cycles can be studied using dynamic general equilibrium models. it is possible to unify business cycle and growth theory. we can go way beyond the qualitative comparison of model properties with stylized facts. RBC的进一步发展_起源 The role of RBC RBC models became a point of departure for many theories in which technology shocks do not play a central role. RBC-based models came to be widely used as laboratories for policy analysis. RBC的进一步发展_挑战 Open Questions in Business Cycle Research the behavior of asset prices. understanding the Great Depression. research on the causes of business cycles, the role of labor markets, the strong patterns of comovement across industries and states. RBC的进一步发展_挑战 the behavior of asset prices: equity premium puzzle Mehra and Prescott (1985,2003) show that utility specifications common in RBC models are not consistent with the difference between the average return to stocks and bonds. the introduction of habit formation as an important step (Sundaresan ,1989; Constantinides ,1990; Abel ,1990; Campbell and Cochrane ,1999). Boldrin, Christiano, and Fisher (2001) show that simply introducing habit formation into a standard RBC model does not resolve the equity premium puzzle. RBC的进一步发展_挑战 What Caused the Great Depression? An unusual combination of bad shocks compounded by bad policy. large drops in the world price of agricultural goods, instability in the financial system, and the worst drought ever recorded. Monetary policy was contractionary. A massive tax increase A bitter tariff war Sorting out the effects of these different shocks and different policies is a daunting task,but significant progress is being made(Christiano, Mot