辽宁电力能源消费与经济增长的实证分析.pdfVIP

Value Engineering ·169 · 辽宁电力能源消费与经济增长的实证分析 Empirical Analysis of Liaoning Electrical Energy Consumption and Economic Growth 李虹 LI Hong （ 沈阳工程学院，沈阳 110136） （Shenyang Institute of Engineering，Shenyang 110136，China） 摘要： 随着社会经济快速发展和人口迅猛增长，各国的经济增长均面临不同程度的能源瓶颈约束，文章基于Granger 因果检验、 协整分析等计量模型和方法，分析了辽宁省电力能源消费与经济增长之间的内在联系，通过分析得出如下结论：辽宁省电力消费与经 济增长之间存在长期协整关系，电力能源消费引起生产总值GDP 的变化，是经济增长的单向Granger 因果关系。最后针对辽宁省就 如何加快电力能源结构调整，推动能源产业转型升级，促进电力与经济协调发展方面提出了具体对策建议。 Abstract: With the rapid economic development and population growth, many countries economic growth face different degree of energy bottleneck constraint. Based on Granger causality test, cointegration analysis of measurement model and method, this paper analyzes the Liaoning province electric energy consumption and economic growth of between inner link, Through the analysis of the conclusions are as follows: Liaoning province power consumption and economic growth a cointegrating relationship between, electric energy consumption caused by the change of GDP. Economic growth is the one -way Granger causality. Finally, according to the Liaoning province how to accelerate the electric energy structure adjustment, push forward the transformation and upgrading of the energy industry, and promote electric power and economic development, the countermeasures are put forward. 关键词： 电力能源消费；协整；Granger 因果关系；经济增长 Key words: electric energy consumption ；cointegration ；Granger causality ；economic growth 中图分类号： 文献标识码： 文章编号： F20 A 1006-4311 （2012）33-0169-02 0 引言 关注的焦点，针对