西北太平洋10~12月台风活动的年代际突变.pdf

Climate Change Research Letters 气候变化研究快报, 2016, 5(2), 101-115 Published Online April 2016 in Hans. /journal/ccrl /10.12677/ccrl.2016.52014 The Decadal Shift between October to December Typhoon Activity over the Western North Pacific Chen Yu College of Oceanic and Atmospheric Sciences, Ocean University of China, Qingdao Shandong nd th st Received: Apr. 2 , 2016; accepted: Apr. 18 , 2016; published: Apr. 21 , 2016 Copyright © 2016 by author and Hans Publishers Inc. This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution International License (CC BY). /licenses/by/4.0/ Abstract Based on the data sets of Regional Specialized Meteorological Center-Tokyo Typhoon Center, Ja- pan Meteorological Agency and the reanalysis data of European Centre for Medium-Range Weath- er Forecasts, this paper demonstrated the decadal shift between October to December (OND) ty- phoon activity over the Western North Pacific (WNP) during 1980 to 2013, and discussed the re- sponse of the OND typhoon activity to decadal shift of the large-scale circulation. Meanwhile, by means of the analysis of typhoon activity and its relative large-scale environmental factors, it brought a detail exposition of its impact mechanisms. We analyzed that the WNP typhoon activity during October to December from 1980 to 2013, compared with that from 1980 to 1994, the ty- phoon activity during October to December among 1995 to 2013 decreased significantly. We dis- covered the main factor that led to the decrease of Tropical Cyclone Genesis Potential Index was the decadal shift of The Maximum Tropical Cyclone Potential Intensity. The anomalous SST pat- terns appear to b