关于跨国公司销售与贸易的临近-集中模型的实证检验.doc

An Empirical Assessment of theProximity-Concentration Trade-off Between Multinational Sales and Trade （关于跨国公司销售与贸易的临近-集中模型的实证检验） This paper examines the extent to which multinational location decisions reflect a trade-off between achieving proximity to customers and concentrating production to achieve scale economies.(这篇文章检验了跨国公司的区位选择反映跨国公司在获取临近消费者的优势和集中生产以获取规模经济之间权衡的程度) It finds that overseas production by multinationals increases relative to exports the higher are transport costs and trade barriers and the lower are investment barriers and scale economies at the plant level relative to the corporate level. However, it is not possible to reject a model with only country and industry effects（本文发现如果运输成本和贸易壁垒越高，同时投资壁垒以及工厂层面的规模经济相对于企业层面的规模经济越低的话，跨国公司在国外生产的产品相对于出口到国外的产品会增加）. The evidence also suggests that multinational activity is more likely the more similar are the home and foreign markets contrary to conventional wisdom（检验还发现跨国公司更倾向于在与国内市场更相似的国外市场上活动，这与传统观点相悖。）. (JEL F12, F21, F23) Multinational enterprises play a key role in international competition（跨国公司在国际竞争中扮演关键角色）. Alan Rugman(1988) estimates that the largest 500 multinationals control over one-half of global trade flows, and one-fifth of global GDP（克鲁格曼估算全球规模最大的500家跨国公司控制着超过一半全球贸易流量和十五分之一的全球CDP）. For countries that have an extensive network of overseas affiliates, such as the United States, the United Kingdom, the Netherlands, and Switzerland, the sales of these affiliates tend to swamp export flows（由于一些国家有着广泛的海外分支机构网，例如美国、英国，荷兰、瑞士，这些分支机构的销售量将使出口流量减少）. In manufacturing and primary goods alone, local sales by U.S.-owned affiliates abroad are over four times greater than U.S. exports to the United Kingdom, Germany, Norway, Brazil, and Spain（单单就制造业和初级产品，美国的海外分支机构在英国、德国、挪威、巴西、西班牙这些国家本土的销售量是美国出口到这些国家的出口额的四倍）. It is also striking that, contrary to conventional wisdom, a large and growing share of multinational activity occurs between industrialized countries as both the source and destination markets, rathe