ID173-住房价格合理性分析：房价收入比指标新思考.pdf

住房价格合理性分析：房价收入比指标的新思考 杨帆，刘洪玉，杨振鹏 （清华大学房地产研究所，北京 100084） 摘 要：本文在总结目前多种房价收入比计算方法，及其在评价中国住房支付能 力方面存在问题的基础上，提出适用于中国国情的动态房价收入比计算方法以及 合理区间的确定方法，并利用全国 35 个大中城市统计数据进行实证研究。结果 表明，我国居民具有较高的房价收入比承受能力；居民对二手住房的支付能力较 强，而购买新建商品住房存在着较大压力；新建商品住房支付困难的原因主要在 于单套住房面积过大和住房价格脱离了经济基本面支撑两方面。作者建议政府在 规范市场行为时要注意因地制宜，引导居民理性购房，继续推行“小户型”政策 并加大公共住房投入，以提高居民住房支付能力，促进房地产市场健康稳定发展。 关键词：住房价格，住房支付能力，动态房价收入比，中国 Study on the Rationality of Housing Prices: A New Perspective on Price-to-income Ratio YANG Fan, LIU Hongyu, YANG Zhenpeng (Institute of Real Estate Studies, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China) Abstract: The high and rapidly rising prices in Chinese housing markets have attracted the attention of the government, scholars and public. The static price-to-income ratios of Beijing and Hangzhou were more than 20 in 2009, thereby bringing people’s concern about the affordability of housing and the rationality of the indicator. This paper presents a new method on the dynamic price-to-income ratio considering income growth. With this method, the analysis on the present housing affordability is investigated based on the data from 35 major cities in China from 2005 to 2009. The results indicate that Chinese people could bear higher Price-to income Ratio and people in most of the cities can well afford the second-hand houses, but they have difficulty in buying newly constructed houses because of the housing 1 price bubble and the large unit area. To improve peoples housing affordability, the Chinese market regulators are advised to insist on the “small units” policy, guide rational consumption, stabilize housing prices and construct a better public housing system. Key Wo