河北省固定资产投资需求分析预测.pdfVIP

ABSTRACT Fixed assets investment is a crucial factor to promote economic growth and optimize economic structure. Therefore, the demand forecast of fixed assets investment is beneficial for countries and regions to control investment scale as well as improve the investment structure so that pushing effects of economic driven by investment could be efficiency and sustainable. The article discusses the influence factors of fixed assets investment including economic growth, bank rate, savings deposit, value-added tax transition, etc. Meanwhile, the mechanism of factors’ action is studied according to related theory and data. In the article, two forecast methods as multiple linear regression model and ARIMA model are applied and developed. As to specific application in Hebei province, the article discusses the relationship between demands of fixed assets investment and corresponding influence factors like economic growth, savings deposit, industrial structure, urbanization, main projects investment, and forecasts the demands of fixed assets investment with two models after which the results are compared. When founding the multiple linear regression model, the article cuts out data from 1981 to 2002 and selects independent variables with stepwise regression, base on which the model is founded between fixed assets investment and last fixed assets investment, incremental deposits. When model is applied to forecast the fixed assets investment between 2003 and 2012, the predictive value fits actual value well, and error is analyzed. Combined with exponent smoothing, the article forecasts demands of fixed assets investment from 2013 to 2017 in Hebei province. As to ARIMA model, the article establishe