气候情景在宁夏北移冬小麦适应气候变化成本效益分析中.ppt

气候情景在宁夏北移冬小麦适应气候变化的成本效益分析中的应用 Application of Climate Scenarios in Cost-benefit Analysis of Winter Wheat Northward as Adaptation Option to Climate Change in Ningxia  农业环境与可持续发展研究所Institute of Environment and Sustainable Development in Agriculture (IEDA) No. 12 South Zhongguancun Avenue Haidian District, Beijing 100081, P.R. ChinaTel: +86-10 Website: E-mail: mashm@; shiming99ma@北京 100081 海淀区 中关村南大街12号 背景－－Background 研究内容和方法－－Methods 研究结果（现状）－－Results（1） 研究结果（预估）－－ Results （2） 主要结论与建议－－ Main conclusions and Recommendations BCR (benefit-cost-ratio) of winter wheat and spring wheat intercropping with maize in 2007 and 2008 冬季和春季平均温度变化 Mean minimum temperature in winter and January  预估的冬季和春季平均温度变化Mean temperature impact assessment?of winter under A2 and B2 scenarios in irrigation areas of Ningxia 在A2 和 B2情景下预估的冬小麦和春小麦产量Simulated yields of spring and winter wheat under A2 and B2 scenarios 种植冬小麦是能够带来效益的适应措施，特别是冬小麦套种玉米和复种蔬菜 Winter wheat cropping could bring the benefit, especially by the intercropping with maize and vegetables. It’s one of beneficial adaptation options 冬小麦种植成本与春小麦种植成本相近 The costs by winter wheat cropping are nearly same as by spring wheat cropping 1990年代最低平均温度的升高，为宁夏冬小麦种植提供了可能性 The increased mean minimum temperature in 1990’s provided the possibility to grow winter in Ningxia 总体而言，未来升高的温度将对冬小麦和春小麦生产产生不利影响 Generally, the higher temperature in future would have adverse impacts both on spring wheat and winter wheat production 农户冬小麦种植意愿受到冬小麦籽粒品质的影响 The farmer’s willing to grow winter wheat is affected by the quality of winter wheat seed 建议－－Recommendations 改进冬小麦品质－－Improving the quality of winter wheat seeds 调整灌溉制度－－Adjustments of the irrigation systems 开发新种植制度－－Development of new cropping systems 提高机械化水平－－Improving the mechanization 稳定扩大冬小麦种植面积－－Steadily development of winter wheat planting areas 中国农业科学院农业环境与可持续发展研究所 * 中国农业科学院 农业环境与可持续发展研究所 气候变化研究室Institute of Environment and Sustainable Development in Agriculture (IEDA) / Resear