中国碳排放量影响因素研究.PDF

中国碳排放量影响因素研究 ——基于省级面板数据的分析 中南财经政法大学 陈青养、胡锐、陈红 摘要：目前中国已成为世界第一大碳排放国，如何控制和减少碳排放量成为 政府部门和学术界关注的热点问题。为促进中国低碳经济发展，本为采用我国 30 个省份 2000~2009 年的相关数据，运用面板数据模型对我国碳排放量的影响 因素进行实证研究。面板协整检验表明：区域碳排放量与人均GDP、产业结构、 人口数量、能源价格、能源效率和人均可支配收入之间存在长期稳定的内生经济 关系。面板模型分别从时间、空间和时空三个层面来估计各因素的影响系数，综 合看对我国东、中、西部地区碳排放量影响最大的三大因素为人均 GDP、人口 数量和能源效率，但是在时间和空间上这三个因素的系数存在差异。我国政府应 该针对不同的时间和区域制定相应的政策以减少我国碳排放总量，为此本文提出 以下政策建议：加大碳排放控制力度，发展低碳经济；制定有效的区域协调合作 政策；平衡碳排放与经济增长，促进经济低碳增长；控制人口数据，鼓励和实施 低碳生活；鼓励区域产业技术联盟，提高能源利用效率；构建低碳绿色税收政策。 关键词：碳排放量；人均GDP ；人口数量；能源效率；面板数据模型 The Research on Influence Factors of Carbon Emissions in China ——based on the Analysis of Provincial Panel Data Abstract: At present, China has become the biggest carbon emissions country in the word, how to control and reduce carbon emissions is the hot issue for the government and academe. For promoting Chinese low carbon economic development, this thesis uses panel data model to take an empirical analysis on the influence factors of carbon emissions in China based on the relevant data of 30 provinces from 2000 to 2009.Panel cointegration test shows that there is a long-term stable endogenous economic relationship among the regional carbon emissions, per capita GRP, industrial structure, total population, energy prices, energy efficiency and per capita disposable income. Panel model estimates the coefficients of the factors from three aspects of the time, space and time-space. From the comprehensive view, the biggest influence factors of carbon emissions are per capita GRP, total population and energy efficiency, but the coefficient is different. So the government should formulate corresponding policies to reduce carbon emissions for different times and different areas, so the paper puts forward the following policy recommendations : Increase efforts to control and cut carbon emissi