幻灯片1-Europa.ppt

Technology Foresight towards 2020 in China: the Practice and its Impacts Mu Rongping Institute of Policy and Management, Chinese Academy of Sciences 2006-9-29 Outline Introduction Introduction Introduction Outline Framework Framework Outline Methodologies Methodologies Methodologies Methodologies Delphi: Divide Sub-fields Delphi: Divide Sub-fields Delphi: Divide Sub-fields Delphi: Divide Sub-fields Generation of the Technology Topics: Stages Delphi Survey: Questionnaire Outline Forecasted Realization Time of Technology Top 10 : Integrated Index of Importance Top 10 : Integrated Index of Importance Outline Impacts Impacts Impacts Impacts The Second International Seville Future-oriented Technology Analysis Seminar Introduction Framework of Technology Foresight towards 2020 in China Methodology for Technology Foresight Major Result of Delphi Survey Impact of the Research on Decision-making National Goals of China well-off society in 2020 Quadruple GDP of the year 2000 by 2020 Industrialization Innovation-Driven Country Improve the capability of innovation Environment-friendly society Resource-conserving society How to achieve the national goals? Improve capabilities Technological capability Innovation capability Priority setting To identify the technology fields with priority To identify the clustering technologies with priority The purposes of the “Technology Foresight towards 2020 in China” To explore a set of systematical methods for technology foresight; To build the scenarios for China development in 2020 so as to identify technology demands; To conduct the Delphi Survey so as to set the priority of technologies; To establish the interactive platform for government-industry-university-academia; To foster the foresight culture in China. Introduction Framework of Technology Foresight towards 2020 in China Methodology for Technology Foresight Major Result of Delphi Survey Impact of the Research on Decision-making International Comparison of the Technology F