地方融资平台信用风险探讨.PDF

No. C2014003 2014- 4 地方融资平台信用风险探讨 肖诗阳 汤宁越 张帆1 No. C2014003 2013 年4 月30 日 【摘要】地方融资平台自出现以来发展迅速,成为地方政府为公益性项目及其它城市开发建 设项目进行融资的重要方式，主要通过商业银行贷款与发行城投债等方式融资。针对目前度 量地方融资平台风险的相关研究的缺乏和评价体系单一性的问题, 本文力图搭建一套多风 险种类评价体系，从债务率水平、地方投融资平台财务表现、地方政府债务支出构成三方面 分别对债务风险进行测量、评价。其中，本文重点对地方投融资平台的财务表现展开分析， 利用MDA 多元判别分析方法，建立以财务指标为切入点的针对投融资平台自身的违约风险 预警模型。根据模型预测的融资平台遭遇财务困境比率为5%，高于普通上市公司。本文通 过三个角度的风险分析，总结了2006 年以来融资平台企业经营状况的变化趋势，评价目前 投融资平台面临的风险情况。 【关键词】 地方融资平台；信用风险；多风险种类评价体系 An Analysis on the Credit Risk of Local Government Investment and Financing Platforms Abstract: The local government investment and financing platforms have been experienced with a rapid development since the day they were created. They have become one of the most important financing channels for public welfare projects and other urban construction projects proposed by local governments. Considering the scarcity of researches on the quantification and measurement of the credit risks faced by local government investment and financing platforms, we try to build an evaluating system focusing on three different risks, and analyze these risks respectively. First, we check the debt ratio of central and local governments, and find that the debt ratio cannot 1 肖诗阳，北京大学哲学、宗教学系。汤宁越，北京大学城市与环境学院。张帆，北京大学国家发展研究 院。 1 accurately reflect the risks by itself. Then we look into the financial performance of these investments and financing platforms, and estimate the financial risk rates of the platforms (around 5%), which is absolutely higher than that of the common listed companies. In addition, we also discuss the unreasonable debt expenditure structure of local governments and try to disclose the recessive risks caused by it. Key words: Local financing platforms, Credit risks, Multi-risks evaluating system JEL Class