收入分配和总消费的关系.docVIP

收入分配和总消费的关系 摘要 本文研究了收入分配情况对总平均消费倾向的影响。本文先通过一个描述消费攀比心理的模型证明了总体来说，高收入群体的平均消费倾向会比低收入群体的平均消费倾向低，（关系A）。接着，本文论证了关系A并不保证分配不均（inequality）程度与总平均消费倾向之间的负相关，（关系B）从而否认了关系A是关系B的充分条件的公认观点。 本文的实证分析表明，在城镇，无论是全国时序数据还是跨省的面板数据，都显示出基尼系数（收入不均程度的一种描述指标）和总平均消费倾向之间的显著的负向关系。同时，城镇的总平均消费倾向与高收入组的平均消费倾向关系更大，而与低收入组的平均消费倾向无甚关系。 而在农村，基尼系数和总平均消费倾向之间没有关系，在排除了其他可能的解释原因后，本文认为，其原因正是本文理论部分所列举的条件之一，即借贷或赠送消费。 由于全国城乡总体的历年基尼系数不可获得，没有进行全国总体的实证检验。但从城镇和农村分别的检验和各种数据揭示的倾向，可以推断，基尼系数和总平均消费倾向之间的关系不确定。相同收入水平的群体，在城镇和在农村的消费支出水平却大相径庭，从而破坏了全国范围内消费支出随收入增加而递减的规律。 本文的结构安排如下：第一部分为引言，第二部分为文献综述，第三部分为模型和理论分析，第四部分为实证检验，第五部分为结论及政策建议。 关键词： 收入分配， 总消费，消费倾向，基尼系数，攀比心理，城乡分割 Abstract This thesis studies the relationship between income distribution and aggregate propensity to consume. A model describing the emulating psychology in consumption (or bandwagon effects) is established to prove that the average propensity to consume (APC) for low-income group is higher than that of high-income group (Relationship A). However, Relationship A does not necessarily lead to the negative relationship between income inequality and aggregate consumption (Relationship B), which challenges the commonly held view that Relationship A is a sufficient condition for Relationship B. Empirical results show that the relationship between the Gini Coefficient and the aggregate APC is significantly negative using either overall urban data or provincial urban panel data. Meanwhile, the urban aggregate APC is more closely linked with high-income group. As for the rural data, there is no significant relationship. After excluding other possible explanations, the thesis maintains that it is mainly because of borrowed or gift money as stated in the theoretical part Due to lack of data for the country’s total Gini coefficient, no stringent empirical analysis is done for the whole country. Nevertheless, it can be inferred that, for the country as a whole, the relationship is uncertain. The major reason is that, for the same income level groups, urban res