Credit Cycles-英文文献.pdf

Credit Cycles Nobuhiro Kiyotaki University of Minnesota and Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis John Moore London School of Economics and Heriot-Watt University We construct a model of a dynamic economy in which lenders can- not force borrowers to repay their debts unless the debts are se- cured. In such an economy, durable assets play a dual role: not only are they factors of production, but they also serve as collateral for loans. The dynamic interaction between credit limits and asset prices turns out to be a powerful transmission mechanism by which the effects of shocks persist, amplify, and spill over to other sectors. We show that small, temporary shocks to technology or income distribution can generate large, persistent fluctuations in output and asset prices. I. Introduction This paper is a theoretical study into how credit constraints interact with aggregate economic activity over the business cycle. In particu- lar, for an economy in which credit limits are endogenously deter- We are indebted to many colleagues and seminar participants. In particular we would like to thank Rao Aiyagari, Fernando Alvarez, John Carlson, Terry Fitzgerald, Mark Gertler, Edward Green, Oliver Hart, Frank Heinemann, Ellen McGrattan, ´ Francois Ortalo-Magne, Edward Prescott, two referees, and the editor for their ˛ thoughtful comments and help. Financial assistance is acknowledged from the U.S. National Science Foundation, the U.K. Economic and Social Research Council, and the Financial Markets Group at the London School of Economics. We are also grate- ful to the Research Department of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis for its hospitality and support. However, our views are not necessarily those of the bank or the Federal Reserve System. [Journal of Political Economy, 1997, vol. 105, no. 2]  1997 by The University of