东艳JohnWhalleydongyan@cass.org.cn.PDF

Working Paper No. 08007 October 29, 2008 东艳 John Whalley dongyan@ CARBON, TRADE POLICY, AND CARBON FREE TRADE AREAS① Yan Dong John Whalley 中文简介：全球气候变化正在逐渐成为影响各国政治、经济发展的一个重大国际问题，在后巴厘时 代，如何用贸易政策来解决气候变化问题是一个新的研究方向。本文的创新之处体现在以下几个方面， 在政策层面，认为以改变贸易结构为目标的贸易政策并不是降低温室气体排放的最有效的政策手段， 同时，本文提出了三种可能的低碳自由贸易区的构想，对其具体模式，效应，实施中可能的问题做出 了政策性判断。在理论层面上，本文拓展了传统的关税同盟理论中的福利判断标准，认为在效应函数 中考虑气候变化的影响后，传统的贸易创造增加福利，贸易转移降低福利的结论不再成立。在后续研 究中，作者采用数值一般均衡模拟技术，测算了不同类型的贸易政策对温室气体排放的影响，得出的 ② 结果支持了本文中的主要观点 。 ABSTRACT This paper discusses both the potential contribution that trade policy initiatives can make towards the achievement of significant global carbon emissions reduction and the potential impacts of proposals now circulating for carbon reduction motivated geographical trade arrangements, including carbon free trade areas. We first suggest that trade policy is likely to be a relatively minor consideration in climate change containment. The dominant influence on carbon emissions globally for next several decades will be growth more so than trade and its composition, and in turn, the size of trade seemingly matters more than its composition giv