波高与风速联合概率分布研究.PDF

第 30 卷 第 2 期 海 洋 通 报 Vol. 30, No. 2 2011 年 04 月 MARINE SCIENCE BULLETIN Apr. 2011 波高与风速联合概率分布研究 陈子燊 （中山大学水资源与环境系，广东 广州 510275 ） 摘 要：基于 copula 函数论述了两变量的联合概率分布方法。此方法的主要优点是边缘分布可由不同的分布函数构成，变量间可具 相关性。以粤东汕尾海域极值波高与相应风速为研究实例，经分析获得以下结果：(1) 优选的极值波高和风速可分别由 P-III 型和 GEV 分布表示； (2) 拟合优度检验指标表明二者的最优连接函数为 Archimedean copula 类的 Gumbel-Hougaard copula ；(3) 与联合分布比 较，重现期介于 5—200 年之间的波高边缘分布设计值的相对差值大约介于 3.1% ~ 8.1%之间，风速设计值相对差值大约介于 2.8% ~ 6.4%之间；(4) 特定风速设计频率条件下，波高与风速的遭遇概率随波高设计频率的减小而减小，特定波高设计频率随风速条件频率 的减小，二者的遭遇概率随之增大。 关键词：极值波高和风速；边缘分布；联合概率分布；Copula 函数；条件分布 中图分类号：P731.22 文献标识码：A 文章编号： 1001-6932(2011)02-0158-06 Study on joint probability distribution of wave height and wind velocity CHEN Zi-shen （Department of Water Resource and Environment ，Zhongshan University ，Guangzhou 510275 ，China ） Abstract ：This article introduced the method of bivariate joint probability distribution based on the copula function. A major advantage of this method is that marginal distributions of individual variables can be of any form and the variables can be correlated. Some of conclusions were reached by using extreme wave height and wind speed as an example collected in Shanwei sea area as the following: (1) Optimized marginal distributions of wave height and wind velocity can be represented by the Pearson pattern three and generalized extreme value distribution, respectively; (2) Gumbel–Hougaard Copula that belongs to Archimedean copula family was the optimal copula selected by the goodness-of-fit test; (3) The relative