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包 装 工 程 第38 卷 第9 期 ·46 · PACKAGING ENGINEERING 2017 年5 月 荔枝包装的风险识别与分析 邹炽导 1,2,3 ，陆华忠 1,2 ，吕恩利 1,2 ，曾志雄 1,2 ，杨松夏 1 （1.华南农业大学，广州 510642 ；2.广东省农产品冷链物流工程技术研究中心，广州 510642 ； 3.广东省教育考试院，广州 510631 ） 摘要：目的 解决在荔枝包装过程中风险源难于辨识及定量分析的难题。方法 提出一种基于霍尔三维因 素空间和模糊故障树的风险识别与定量分析方法。构建荔枝包装的安全事件、时空结构（工位）、事故 致因等3 个维度的因素集，通过矩阵之间的映射关系和计算分析得到风险基本事件集合。建立荔枝包装 的故障树模型，并对风险基本事件进行专家问卷评价。采用梯形模糊数及左右模糊排序法将专家的评判 语言转化为风险概率值。结果 经计算得到荔枝包装事故发生概率（0.0409 ）及风险基本事件的概率重 要度。结论 提出了强化标准化建设，加大技术投入等防范风险事故发生的措施。 关键词：荔枝；包装；风险识别；风险分析 中图分类号：TS206.6 文献标识码：A 文章编号： 1001-3563(2017)09-0046-07 Risk Identification and Analysis of Litchi Packaging ZOU Chi-dao1,2,3, LU Hua -zhong 1,2, LYU En -li1,2, ZENG Zhi-xiong 1,2, YANG Song-xia1 (1.South China Agricultural University, Guangzhou 510642, China; 2.Guangdong Engineering Research Center of Agricultural Product Cold Chain Logistics, Guangzhou 510642, China; 3.Education Examinations Authority of Guangdong Province, Guangzhou 510631, China) ABSTRACT: The work aims to solve the problem of difficult identification of risk sources and quantitative analysis in the process of litchi packaging. A method based on Hall three-dimensional space and fuzzy fault tree was proposed to solve risk identification and quantitative analysis problems. The factor sets of litchi packaging including such three di- mensions as security incidents, space-time structures (work positions) and accident causes were constructed. The basic set of risk events was obtained through the mapping relation between the matrices and the calculation and analysis. The fault tree model of litch