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历史拟合相关研究
Advanced Topics in Reservoir Simulation:History Matching Stanford UniversityNovember 26th 2002 W.J. Milliken ChevronTexaco EPTC What is History Matching? The process by which a reservoir simulation model is altered in some way to match the known production history Why do we perform History Matching? It is generally assumed that if a reservoir simulation model is history matched then it will more accurately predict future performance and better represent the current pressure and saturation state. What makes History Matching difficult? Ill-conditioned mathematical problem Multiple solutions Highly non-linear interactions Constraints not bounded Uncertainties in variables unknown Key parameters are not always apparent Input variables are stochastic Production data inherently uncertain (bias) What do we match in History Matching? Production Data Oil, water, gas, steam Fluid components (tracers) Production allocations Pressure Data RFT, SFT, BHP, THP Continuous downhole monitoring Other Data Temperature Profiles, Saturation Distribution (well, 4D seismic), … What parameters are changed to achieve a History Match? Permeability (esp. distribution) Porosity (pore volume) Initial fluid distribution PVT, rel. perm., cap. press., rock compressibility, … Faults (transmissibility, location, NNC) Wells (completions, PI’s, locations) Process physics Other ???? History Matching : Example Sandstone reservoir 1.5 BSTB 50 years of production 150 wells K ~2.5D Porosity ~ 30% History Match Changes Permeability Pore Volume Kv/Kh Heterogeneity How did the model change? History Matching : Example #2 History Match Changes Perm and porosity Good match to oil and water GOR increasing at late time Oil rate declining Pressure increasing! History Matching: Example #2 Simulator was not capturing process physics Injected water stripping CO2 from the reservoir gas! History Matching: Practical Considerations Most time consuming and difficult (tedious) part of any simulation study Potentia
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