04价值评估2012.pptx

价值评估;价值;价值评估标准;北大文凭价值评估;价值评估方法;价值评估的误区;价值评估的误区;价值评估的误区;现金流折现估价法;现金流折现估价法;; 公式 ;例子;例子;分析一下;;例子;例子;分析;;例子;例子;小结;债券;PB = 面值 Ct = 利息 T = 到期日 r = 折现率;债券定价：例子;Bond Values Decrease if Discount Rates Increase;Prices and market interest rates have an inverse relationship When interest rates get very high the value of the bond will be very low When rates approach zero, the value of the bond approaches the sum of the cash flows;Term Structure of Interest Rates;;Treasury Yield Curve for February 25, 2005;国债交易所收益率曲线图。(图片来源：和讯网) ;股票定价;简单的模型;;;股利折现模型;Dividend Discount Model;Infinite Holding Period;Zero Growth Model;Constant Growth Model;Two-Stage DDM ;Three-stage growth model;公司价值评估;经济模型;PG为例;净利润与销售;投入资本＆Sales;Notes;对比估值法;对比估值法的要素;更有说服力;;诱惑在哪里;市场的需要;市场的需要;我们需要吗？;乘数的四部结构法;定义的测试;例子：P/E的定义;描述性;美国PE分布描述;;;分析;Gordon Growth Model: Dividing both sides by the earnings, ;The price-earnings ratio for a high growth firm can also be related to fundamentals. In the special case of the two-stage dividend discount model, this relationship can be made explicit fairly simply: For a firm that does not pay what it can afford to in dividends, substitute FCFE/Earnings for the payout ratio. Dividing both sides by the earnings per share: ;简单例子;增长与PE：假设公司头5年x%, 以后8%;问题：;增长时间与PE：假设公司25%n年, 以后8%;;应用检验;;问题;问题 2;问题 3;在同一行业内比较PE;PE，成长与风险;例子;又一个例子;可比公司的利与弊;可比公司的利与弊;利用整个样本：回归法;PE与增长;;这么简单？ 没问题吧？ 有吗？ ;需要注意;实践例子;期权估值法 ;问题;期权与净现值的区别;灵活性的价值;影响因素;;; 期权的种类;Option to delay;例子：专利;获得计算的基本信息;案例:新药专利 Avnox;Avonex案例;期权价值;;拥有专利公司的价值;Biogen现有产品价值;未来RD的价值;总价值;实物期权的检验：专利与科技;实物期权的检验：专利与科技;自然资源实物期权;输入变量;估值石油储备;S=$12*50/(1.05)2=$544.22 M 如果今天开始开发，石油将在两年后开始销售。机会成本为失去的净利润。因此用5%折现。 执行价格=$12*50=$600 M 到期日：20年 方差：0.03 股息率=5%;期权价值;扩展;The Option to Extend;假想例子;期权价值;项目整体;机会未必是期权;;Option to abandon;放弃期权的估值;期权价值;是否合资？;对投资分析的启示;房地产;;