统计学的成功案例和警示故事.ppt

Statistics Success Stories and Cautionary Tales 统计学的成功案例和警示故事 LESSON 1 第一课 1.1 WHAT IS STATISTICS ? 什么是统计学 Statistics is a collection of procedures and principle for gathering data and analyzing information in order to help people make decisions when faced with uncertainty. 统计学是一套收集数据和分析信息的方法和原则，以帮助人们在面对不确定性时制定决策。 The odds of finding two identical fingerprints were 1 in 64 billion. —Francis Galton 两个随机个体具有相同DNA图形的概率为3×10-11；如果同时用两种探针进行比较，两个个体完全相同的概率小于5×10-19。 每支枪的枪管都有独一无二的特征，这种特征影响了它所发射的每一发子弹。 —司法弹道学 航空公司通过抽样而省钱 最早的英文原版《打败庄家》 1.2 SEVEN STATISTICAL STORIES WITH MORALS 7个包含寓义的统计学故事 There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies and statistics。 Benjamin Disraeli (British Prime Minister, 1804–1881) CASE STUDY 1 Who are Those Speedy Drivers? 谁是快车手？ “What’s the fastest you have ever driven a car?” -Penn State University, 1994 110 109 90 140 105 150 120 110 110 90 115 95 145 140 110 105 85 95 100 115 124 95 100 125 140 85 120 115105 125 102 85 120 110 120 115 94 125 80 85 140 120 92 130 125 110 90 110 110 95 95 110 105 80 100 110 130 105 105 120 90 100 105 100 120 100 100 80 100 120 105 60 125 120 100 115 95 110 101 80 112 120 110 115 125 55 90 87 Males 80 75 83 80 100 100 90 75 95 85 90 90 90 120 85 100 120 75 85 80 70 85 110 85 75 105 95 75 70 90 70 82 85 100 90 95 90 110 80 80 110 110 95 75 130 95 110 110 80 90 105 90 110 75 100 90 110 85 90 80 80 85 50 80 100 80 80 80 95 100 90 100 95 80 80 50 88 90 90 85 70 90 30 85 85 87 85 90 85 75 90 102 80 100 95 110 80 95 90 80 90 102 Females Responses to “What’s the fastest you’ve ever driven?” Dotplot MALES Fastest speed (mph) FEMALES Fastest speed (mph) Responses to “What’s the fastest you’ve ever driven?” Five-number summary 130 30 150 55 Extremes 95 80 120 95 Quartiles 89 110 Median Females (102 Students) Males (87 Students) 一条平均水深0.4m河流绝不会比一个平均水深0.6m的游泳池更安全 Re