概率优化法(probabilistic approach).ppt

概率優化設計之介紹及提升風車可靠度的應用 吳爾融博士 了解上述或然率(概率)的應用原理, 再取得運算工具及協助 資料, 即可進行產品的優化設計, 以達到提升良率降低成目標. 事實上, 此優化設計方法因限制的絛件少,可應用於例如機械 電子,化工,化學,土木,生物科技及含有隨機變數的事件之預測, 下列一些作者所發表的應用例子: 汽車工業------車輪(金屬輪圈)的優化設計[1] 潤滑工程------特殊軸承的研發[2] 中草藥的研發-------有效成分之優化設計[3] 一般藥物的研發-----找出有效成分[4] 選舉選票分析---------成功可能性之預測[5] The whole system is influenced by its uncertain environment. 整個系統受不確定的周遭環境所影響 Engineering ingenuity and probabilistic approach may serve as technical drivers for future developments. 對未來的發展, 工程創新能力及概率應用方法是主要的 推動力. 簡報完畢，敬請指教 Large Roller Bearing Wind Turbine Loading Situation Causes of Wind Turbine Failure Material Fatigue (2) Vibration—Rotor-Bearing Dynamics (3) Natural Disasters----Cyclone, Tornado, Tsunami and Earthquake Fatigue: Tower, Blade, Hub and Nacelle (2) Vibration: Rotor, Bearing and Gearbox “Failure” (3) Disaster: Foundation and Control Mechanism Possible Solutions: Design (good tool) (2) Tests and Data Acquisition (field operation) (3) Experiments (models) (4) Research and Development (new tool components) Wind Turbine Damage Wind Turbine Gearbox Damage A Sample of Tilting-Pad Bearing Tilting-Pad Bearing Sketch Robust Design and Reliability Three Methods: (1) (Deterministic) Physical Modeling with Safety Factor: Structure Dynamics, Computational Fluid Dynamics, Rotor Bearing Dynamics, Structure-Fluid interaction Fatigue Analysis, Test Data Acquisition etc. After computation, add a safety factor for design. (2) Statistic Method: Effective sampling, Searching for Expectation (mean) Value and Minimizing Variance. Find μ with minimum σ (3) Probabilistic Method (Statistic + Physical Modeling): Define a Limit state function= Target Value – Results of Physical Model In side the physical model, convert design parameters into probability distribution functions (random numbers for uncertainty). Analytic or Simulation Methods to satisfy limit-state function and minimize