美国量化宽松政策的实施背景-影响与中国对策.pdf

GLOBALIZATION AND CHINA 全球化与中国 美国量化宽松政策的 实施背景、影响与中国对策* The Implementation Background, Influence and China ’s Countermeasures of the Quantitative Easing Policy in America 李建伟 杨琳 内容提要 2010 年一季度以后美国经济复苏势头弱化。 在降息、扩大财政赤字规模等刺激经济增长的常规政策 措施空间有限的情况下，为巩固经济复苏势头，美国采取了实施第二轮量化宽松政策的非常规措施。 量化宽松 政策增加的基础货币将导致美元贬值，加大全球通货膨胀压力，刺激国际市场短期资本流向中国、 印度等新兴 市场，稀释美国债务，加大其他国家持有美元固定收益资产的投资损失。 中国持有的大量固定收益美元资产将 因此大幅缩水，并面临输入型通胀压力加大和短期资本大量涌入的挑战，需采取优化外汇储备投资结构、加强 对短期资本流入管控、加快实施国内企业“走出去”战略、增强人民币汇率弹性等多方面措施应对。 关键词 美国 经济复苏 货币政策 影响 作者单位 国务院发展研究中心宏观经济研究部 北京 100010；中国人寿保险股份有限责任公司 北京 100033 Li Jianwei Yang Lin Abstract: After the first quarter of 2010, the momentum of economic recovery in America is weaken. In the limited condition of cutting interest rates, increasing the deficit and other conventional policies and measures to stimulate economic growth, in order to consolidate the momentum of economic recovery, America adopted an unconventional measure to implement the second round of quantitative easing policy. The base currency increased by the quantitative easing policy will lead to the depreciation of U.S. dollar, increase the pressure of global inflation, stimulate the short- term capital of international market to flow to China, India and other emerging markets, relieve the debt of America, increase the investment losses of other countries holding U.S. dollar fixed-income assets. The large U.S. dollar fixed- income assets China holds will thus be substantially diminished, and face the challenges of imported inflation pressures and the influx of short -term capital. Optimizing the investment structure of foreign exchange reserves, strengthening the control of the influx of short-term capital, accelerating the implementation of “going out” strategy of domestic enterprises, enhancing the flexibility