宏观经济学7.剖析(失业与通货膨胀)案例.ppt

第七章 解剖失业和通货膨胀 The anatomy of inflation and unemployment 失业和通货膨胀是民众关注的焦点问题 选择失业和通货膨胀代价最低的组合 In 1999, neither employment nor inflation was regarded as major issues. Pick up the lowest-cost combination of unemployment and inflation “big picture ” Two main costs of unemployment Lost production Undesirable effects on the distribution of income The costs of inflation 失业的成本: 产量损失, 收入分配的效应 通货膨胀的成本: 可预期的通货膨胀的代价较小 不可预期的通货膨胀引起明显的财富再分配 7-1 unemployment (失业) Okun’s law 1 extra point of unemployment costs 2 percent of GDP. distributional consequences 奥肯定理 1%的失业率导致2%的GDP损失 Fig 7-1 Okun’s Law: The Relation Between Unemployment and GDP Growth 失业问题的国际比较 美国 失业率较低，以短期性失业居多 原因：经济增长较快，有活力。劳动力市场的竞争性高，较为灵活。新的就业岗位多。 欧盟 失业率较高，以长期性失业居多 原因：经济复苏慢。紧缩性政策。过度的社会福利，过高的替代率。 日本 终生雇佣+年功序列制 弹性就业制 7-2 通货膨胀(inflation) Money lubricates the economy. Unexpected inflation has an easily seen distributional cost. Economists Public has a very strong dislike of inflation that policymakers ignore at their peril. 货币是经济发展的“第一推动力”和“润滑剂” 没有预期到的通货膨胀的再分配成本(讨论) 对通货膨胀的不同态度 经济学家 大众 7-3 失业分析the anatomy of unemployment The unemployment pool One of four reasons Variation in unemployment across groups defined by age ,race,or experience(fig 7-2) Cyclical and frictional unemployment Duration of unemployment 失业的蓄水池 不同团体(阶层)的失业率差异(fig 7-2) 周期性失业与摩擦性失业 失业的期限与失业的频率 Fig 7-2 U.S. Unemployment Rates, Total, and by Sex, Age, and Race, 1948-2002 (1) Fig 7-2 (2) Fig 7-2 (3) Fig 7-2 (4) 7-4 Full employment Determinants of the natural rate Frequency of unemployment Estimates of natural rate of unemployment 自然失业率的决定因素(136) 失业的频率 对自然失业率的估计(138 fig 7-3) Fig 7-3 The Natural and Actual Rates of Unemployment, 1948-2002 Reducing natural rate of unemployment降低自然失业率 Unemployment benefits The replacement ratio Is the ratio of after-tax income while unemployed to after-tax income while employed. Unemployment benefits increase the rate in two ways 失业的利益 替代率: 失业时的税后收入与在职时的税后收入的比率.高的替代率提高了工人就业的保留工资. 失业利益提高了失业率