考虑战略顾客和零售商非理性心理的报童模型和供应链绩效研究.doc

考虑战略顾客与非理性的报童模型与供应链研究 蔺宇 ，申杨柳+ （天津大学 管理与经济学部，天津 300072）摘要：研究了具有缺货与浪费规避偏差的零售商面对风险厌恶型战略顾客时的订货与定价问题，建立了理性预期均衡条件下的最优定价与订货模型，分析了最优解的性质在此基础上研究了在分散式供应链中如何运用数量折扣契约实现供应链协调。研究发现：（1）顾客的战略行为零售商影响了零售商的定价与订货策略，（2）数量折扣契约可以实现供应链协调。通过灵敏度分析探讨了缺货规避偏差与浪费规避偏差对零售商定价与订货的影响，证明了在分析战略顾客行为对零售商决策影响时考虑缺货规避偏差与浪费规避偏差的合理性。 关键词：战略顾客；缺货与浪费规避偏差；数量折扣；风险厌恶报童模型中图分类号：F272.3 文献标识码：A Newsvendor Model and Supply Chain Performance Analysis with Strategic Customer Behavior and Irrational Psychology LIN Yu, SHEN Yang-liu+, ZHENG Shuo (School of Management and Economy, Tianjin University, Tianjin 300072, China) Abstract: The stockout-averse preference and waste-averse preference are introduced to study the pricing and inventory control problem of retailers when considering the strategic customer behavior. A new mathematical pricing and inventory control model based on the Rational Expectation Equilibrium is proposed, and further research focus on how to make use of quantity discount contract to realize the supply coordination and the optimal supply chain performance. The result shows that: (1) The customer strategic behavior and the retailer’s irrational psychology have a great influence on retailer’s pricing and ordering decisions (2) The quantity discount contract could realize the supply coordination and the optimal supply chain performance. The sensitivity analysis indicates that the stockout-averse and waste-averse preference of retailer has a major impact on pricing and ordering quantity. The rationality of considering stockout-averse and waste-averse preference in newsvendor model with strategic customer behavior is demonstrated. Key words: strategic customer; stockout-averse and waste-averse preference; quantity discount contract; risk-averse; newsvendor model 0 引言 在销售季节性商品时，随着时间的变动调整商品的价格，已成为零售商应对需求不确定市场的一种常见的提高收入的方法[1]。在传统的文献中，研究人员假定顾客行为对零售商的决策没有影响，但已有研究证明零售商的降价行为已经将顾客训练成战略性和理性的。“顾客战略行为”是指预估到未来产品可能会进行降价处理产生的等待行为，市场调研发现超过一半的被访者表示会等待季末折扣时再购买商品 [2]。顾客的这种战略行为必然导致零售商的边际收益下降[3]。近年来顾客战略行为逐渐受到学术界的关注，