第三章，能源需求分析.ppt

能源规划与可持续发展 第三章 能源需求分析和能源效率 3.1 能源需求分析和预测 3.2 能源效率 3.2 能源需求分析和预测方法 在进行能源规划时，必须对能源需求量进行预测，它是能源规划乃至国民经济规划的重要组成部分。 在研究国家或地区能源消费的历史和现状的基础上，分析影响能源需求变化的各种因素，找出能源需求与这些因素的关系，并根据这些关系对未来能源需求变化趋势作出估计和评价。 能源需求分析和预测的两类方法 （1）弹性系数法，Top-Down （2）时间序列分析法，Top-Down 对于某一地区的能源消费量，按时间的先后次序排列起来，形成一个时间序列。能源消费量在不同的时间里受到很多因素的作用和影响，它们的综合效果形成了时间序列的观察值。寻找其随时间变化的趋势和统计规律，并以适当的数学关系把它表示出来，然后用它来预测将来的能源消费量 包括最小二乘法，指数平滑法，移动平均法等。 （3）单耗法- Bottom-up 一个地区的工业生产用能，可以按照行业划分为若干部门，如煤炭、石油、冶金、机械、建筑、纺织、化纤、造纸、食品等，再对每个部门统计出主要产品的单位产品能耗，知道了每种产品的产量，就可得到N种工业产品总能量需求 影响单耗的因素 （1）产品结构 （2）产业结构 （3）节能措施 （4）产品价格 （5）生产条件 例：MAED model-Bottom-up MAED model evaluates future energy demand based on medium- to long-term scenarios of socio-economic, technological and demographic developments. The model relates the specific energy demand for producing various goods and services, to the corresponding social, economic and technological factors that affect this demand. The most prominent feature of it is the flexibility for representing the structure of energy consumption. The users can disaggregate energy consumption according to the needs and/or data availability in their country. The nature and level of the demand for goods and services are a function of several factors, population growth, number of inhabitants per dwelling, number of electrical appliances used in households, peoples’ mobility and preferences for transportation modes. National priorities for the development of certain industries or economic sectors, the evolution of the efficiency of certain types of equipment, market penetration of new technologies or energy forms etc. The expected future trends for these determining factors, which constitute “scenarios”, are exogenously introduced. can define up to ten sub-sectors in each of major sectors of the economy can define up to fifteen modes of transportation for each of the predefined passenger transportation and freight transportation can specify up to eight fuels and assign them to each transportation mode as appropriate