基于粮食生产能力的APEC地区粮食安全评价.pdf

中国农业科学 2011,44(13):2838-2848 Scientia Agricultura Sinica doi: 10.3864/j.issn.0578-1752.2011.13.023 基于粮食生产能力的APEC地区粮食安全评价 余强毅，吴文斌，唐华俊，陈佑启，杨 鹏 （中国农业科学院农业资源与农业区划研究所/农业部资源遥感与数字农业重点开放实验室，北京 100081 ） 摘要：【目的】以具有典型代表性且在世界粮食供给体系中占据重要地位的亚太经合组织（Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation，APEC）地区为研究区域，开展基于粮食生产能力的粮食安全评价研究。【方法】利用机制 法模型测算区域的土地生产潜力和粮食生产潜力，并以此作为粮食安全评价的基础；分别从粮食生产与消费、粮 食增产潜力、人口承载等方面建立指标体系，应用层次分析法（AHP）分析APEC各成员体的粮食安全形势。【结果】 APEC地区粮食生产潜力总和为17.39亿t，其中中国的潜力总产5.69亿 t，为区域内最高。比照当前的粮食现实 产量，总体来说，各成员体均具有一定的增产空间，但如果综合考虑人口承载、粮食消费等情况，各成员体的粮 食安全形势呈现分化态势，除日本、韩国外，发达成员体总体上略好于不发达成员体。【结论】如何最大限度地挖 掘区域粮食生产潜力并有效控制人口增长将是保障APEC 地区粮食安全的重要途径和重要挑战。 关键词：粮食生产能力；粮食安全评价；机制法；层次分析法；亚太经合组织 A Food Security Assessment in APEC Based on Grain Productivity YU Qiang-yi, WU Wen-bin, TANG Hua-jun, CHEN You-qi, YANG Peng (Institute of Agricultural Resources and Regional Planning, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences / Key Laboratory of Resources Remote Sensing and Digital Agriculture, Ministry of Agriculture, Beijing 100081) Abstract: 【Objective 】The APEC (Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation), due to its great typicality and importance in world food system, was selected to conduct food security assessment among its economies in this study. 【Method 】Intended to highlight grain production in food system, this study firstly used the mechanism method to calculate the productivity potential of radiation, thermal, climatic, land and grain production-potential in APEC region regressively, which was taken as the basis of food security assessment. And then some important indicators were selected to build the index system to assess the food security level in each APEC member economies by using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). 【Result 】The resul