基于传染病动力学农户风险管理参与率行为的数值模拟.pdfVIP

VoL 25 No. 4 第25 卷第4 期 贵州大学学报(自然科学版〉 2∞8 年 7 月 Joumal of Guiwou University (Natural Sciences) Jul. 2∞8 文章编号 l(胁 -5269(2∞8)04 -0428-06 基于传染病动力学农户凤险管理 参与率行为的数值模拟 谷政，潜雄 擂 要:农业保险制度不仅是农立保障体系中重要组成部分，而且已或为国际上最重要的非椅格 农业保护工具之一。但长2属以来，我型农户的农业保险参与率较低且不稳定，造成农业保险凡乎 处于市场失灵的息洼境地。本文把所研究的农业总人口分为三类:不了解农业保险且没有买农 业保栓的人群:了解农业保险但没有买农业保栓的人群;了解农业保险且买了农业保险的人群。 建立基于提分方程组的数学模型，探讨了系统平衡点的存在性、稳定，撞并进行了数佳模拟和讨 专念。 关键词:农业保险:参与率:动力学;数值模拟 中图分类号:自40.66 支献棕识码:A The numerical simulation on the rate of farmers participating of risk management based on the dynamics of infectious diseases 1 2 2 GU Zheng • ,YOU Xiong ( 1. School of E∞血牺i回回d Management , Nanjìn草 Agricultural Unìversity ,C是i皿; 2. Scier硝 College ， r如1吨Agricultural Universìty 210095) Abstract: Agricultural insurance is not only impo血nt in the 帘icul阳ral support system , but 必o it has become one of the m岱t important international non-pricεs agricultural protection t∞ls. But the rate of Chinese farmers participating in agricultural insurance is low and uni;table , resulting in the market failure in the a伊icultural insurance. In this paper，也εstudy by 出e agricultural population is classified into three categories: 币le group of lack of understanding of agricultural insurance and no buying agri- cultural ínsurance; 百le group of understanding of agricultural insurance But no buying agricultural ín- 8urance; The group of Understanding of agricultural insurance and have bought agricultural insurance. We establ