人民币的坚强.doc

人民币的坚强 The renminbi’s seemingly endless grind lower against the US dollar has been one of the financial stories of 2016, triggering a wave of capital outflows from China that Goldman Sachs estimates may have totalled $1.1tn since August 2015. 人民币兑美元汇率似乎跌跌不休，这已成为2016年金融领域的故事之一，引发了一波资本外流浪潮。据高盛(Goldman Sachs)估计，自2015年8月以来，中国资金外流规模或已达到1.1万亿美元。 The once closely controlled Chinese currency has tumbled 6.5 per cent to an eight-year low of Rmb6.945 against the greenback this year, taking its slide since August 2015 to 10.6 per cent. 曾经受到严密控制的人民币兑美元汇率今年下跌了6.5%，目前处在1美元兑6.945元人民币的8年低点，如果从2015年8月算起，跌幅则达到10.6%。 As increasingly panicky Chinese and foreign entities have sought to evade the ongoing devaluation of their renminbi holdings by getting money out of the country, capital outflows have surged, with estimates of their size ranging from the $520bn the Institute of International Finance believes was spirited out of China in the first 10 months of 2016 to Goldman’s $1.1tn figure. 中外各类实体越来越惊慌失措，为了避免自己所持的人民币资产持续贬值，他们纷纷寻求将资金转移出中国，这导致资金外流激增。各机构对中国资金外流规模有不同的估计，比较低的有国际金融协会(Institute of International Finance)估计的2016年头10个月流出5200亿美元，比较高的就是上文高盛的估计——自2015年8月以来流出了1.1万亿美元。 Yet, arguably, there is another interpretation of what is happening to the currency of the world’s second-largest economy, one which may help allay some of the panic. 然而，对于全球第二大经济体的货币当前的走势还有另外一种解释，它或许有助于缓解恐慌情绪。 Since the end of June, the renminbi has been remarkably stable against the trade-weighted basket of 13 currencies introduced by the People’s Bank of China in December 2015. 自今年6月底以来，人民币相对于贸易加权货币篮子的汇率一直非常稳定，这个篮子由13种货币组成，是中国央行(PBoC)在2015年12月推出的。 Having closed at an index level of 95.02 on June 30, the renminbi has oscillated in a range of 93.78 to 95.34, according to the weekly updates released by the China Foreign Exchange Trade System, an arm of the People’s Bank. The most recent figure, for December 16, shows a reading of 94.99, just 0.03 points below that of June 30. 根据中国央行下属的中国外汇交易中心(China Foreign Exchange Tr