国际金融04_德州大学教授Crowder课件.ppt

The Money Supply Process The Tools of Monetary Policy The Conduct of Monetary Policy: Strategy and Tactics * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * The Federal Reserve’s Monetary Policy Strategy The United States has achieved excellent macroeconomic performance (including low and stable inflation) until the onset of the global financial crisis without using an explicit nominal anchor such as an inflation target History: Fed began to announce publicly targets for money supply growth in 1975 Paul Volker (1979) focused more in nonborrowed reserves Greenspan announced in July 1993 that the Fed would not use any monetary aggregates as a guide for conducting monetary policy The Federal Reserve’s Monetary Policy Strategy There is no explicit nominal anchor in the form of an overriding concern for the Fed. Forward looking behavior and periodic “preemptive strikes” The goal is to prevent inflation from getting started. The Federal Reserve’s Monetary Policy Strategy Advantages Uses many sources of information Demonstrated success Disadvantages Lack of accountability Inconsistent with democratic principles The Federal Reserve’s Monetary Policy Strategy Advantages of the Fed’s “Just Do It” Approach: forward-looking behavior and stress on price stability also help to discourage overly expansionary monetary policy, thereby ameliorating the time-inconsistency problem Disadvantages of the Fed’s “Just Do It” Approach: lack of transparency; strong dependence on the preferences, skills, and trustworthiness of the individuals in charge of the central bank Lessons for Monetary Policy Strategy from the Global Financial Crisis 1. Developments in the financial sector have a far greater impact on economic activity than was earlier realized 2. The zero-lower-bound on interest rates can be a serious problem 3. The cost of cleaning up after a financial crisis is very high 4. Price and output stability do not ensure financial stability Lessons f