国际金融课件chapter 7 International Lending and Financial Crises.ppt

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国际金融课件chapter 7 International Lending and Financial Crises.ppt

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国际金融课件chapter 7 International Lending and Financial Crises

Chapter 7: International Lending and Financial Crises In this chapter we will take a close look at the causes and effects of lending and portfolio investment. International lending can bring major benefits of two types. First it represents inter-temporal trade. Second, it allows lenders and investors to diversify their investments more broadly. 一、International financial capital flows The key categories: Private lending and investing Long term Direct investment Loans Portfolio investment Short term Official lending and investing Gains and losses from Well-Behaved International Lending Assumption: The world is stable and predictable; Borrowers fully honor their commitments to repay; Figure 7.1 shows the normal effects of allowing free international lending and borrowing. Figure 7.1Well-Behaved International Lending Taxes on international lending If Japan has market power to restrict its foreign lending and exploits this power by imposing a tax of 2 percent per year on the value of assets held abroad by residents of Japan. If America also has market power to restrict its borrowing and imposes the 2 percent tax on the same international assets. 二、International lending to developing countries The surge in international lending, 1974~1982 The rich oil-exporting nations had a high short-run propensity to save out of their extra income. pessimism in industrialized countries. resistance to FDI, Herding behavior The Debt Crisis Of 1982 In August 1982, Mexico declared that it was unable to service its large foreign debt. Mainly reasons: Debt condition Interest rates increased sharply in the United States. Developing countries’ exports declined Error economic policies Overlending and Overborrowing Resolve: 1982~1984 at the beginning 1985~1988 Baker Plan 1989~, The Brady Plan The resurgence of capital flows in the 1990s the Brady Plan led investors to believe that the previous crisis was being resolved. Low U.S. interest rates again. The developing countries were becoming mor