基于不确定性的水资源优化配置模型及其实证研究.pdf

中国环境科学 2014,34(6) ：1607~1613 China Environmental Science 基于不确定性的水资源优化配置模型及其实证研究 * 刘年磊,蒋洪强 ,吴文俊 (环境保护部环境规划院, 国家环境保护环境规划与政策模拟重点实验室,北京 100012) 摘要：针对城市水资源系统中存在的不确定性,将可信性模糊机会约束规划模型与区间规划相结合,提出了不确定环境下的可信性模糊- 间线性规划(FILP)模型,将其应用于某城市水资源优化配置与科学管理中,构建了城市水资源优化配置 FILP 模型.该模型以城市的经济、社 会与环境的可持续发展为目标, 以供需水量等为不确定性约束, 以各水源在各子区不同部门间的分配为决策变量,利用改进的风险显性区间 规划算法进行求解得到一定置信度和意愿水平下的水资源优化配置风险-收益权衡方案.实证研究表明,该模型反映了不确定性因素对水 资源系统收益的影响,能够为实际的优化决策提供方法支持. 关键词：水资源；优化配置；不确定性；模糊区间线性规划 中图分类号：X820 文献标识码：A 文章编号：1000-6923(2014)06-1607-07 Empirical research of optimal allocation model of water resources under uncertainties. LIU Nian-lei, JIANG * Hong-qiang , WU Wen-jun (State Key Laboratory of Environmental Planning and Policy Simulation, Chinese Academy for Environmental Planning, Beijing 100012, China). China Environmental Science, 2014,34(6)：1607~1613 Abstract ：To better deal with the uncertainties in urban water resources system, this research introduced a fuzzy interval linear programming (FILP) model under uncertainties, which is combined credibility fuzzy chance-constrained programming (CFCCP) into interval programming. In addition, the FILP model was applied to optimizing allocation of urban water resources. Taken the sustainable development of a city’s economy, society and environment as objection, water allocation quantity among different sectors of all sub-regions as decision variables, and water supply and demand as uncertainty constraints, this research obtained the risk-benefit tradeoff solutions under certain confidence and aspiration level for water resource allocation by applying the risk explicit interval linear programming algorithm. The empirical study shows that the FILP model can reflect the effects of uncertainty on system benefit, as well as support actual optimal decisio