对城镇基本养老保险制度设计替代率的评估分析-人口与经济.pdf

2009 4 No.4, 2009 (175 ) POPULATION ECONOMICS (Tot.No.175) 徐　颖, 王建梅 ( , 　100192) 　:本文在合理估计我国当前及未来35 年劳动增长率、 人口增长率、 利率、 生存率等 础上, 对 本养老保险制度的设计替代率做了评估分析。 研究表明:当前制度极大程度地降低了缴费年限短 的各收入群体的替代率水平, 因其更追求制度运行的效率, 从而降低了社会公平程度;现行制度未完 全发挥其内在潜力, 还存在改良的空间;虽然为退休职工提供的真实保障水平并不高, 不能达到其计 划实现的标准, 但为未来发展的不确定性预留了较大的支付空间。 : 本养老保险;替代率;评估分析 :F840.67　　:A　　:1000-4149 (2009)04-0078-07 Evaluation and Analysis on Designed Substitution Rate of Basic Endowment Insurance System in Urban Area XU Yi g, WANG Jia -mei (Beiji g I formatio Scie ce Tech ology U iversity, Beiji g 　100192, Chi a) Abstract:Based o the reaso able estimatio of labor growth rate, populatio growth rate, i terest rate, survival rate of prese t time a d i the comi g 35 years, the paper evaluates a d a alyses the desig ed substitutio rate of basic e dowme t i sura ce system.The research shows that the curre t system has decreased the substitutio rate of those i come groups whose payme t period is short.Due to its aim of maximizi g operatio al efficie cy, the system decreases its social equity degree, a d the pote tial of the system has ot bee fully exploited, some improveme t ca still be made.Though the real level of guara tee provided to retired staff by this system is ot high, has ot reached the pla ed sta dard, it reserves much room for promotio i future. Keywords:basic e dowme t i sura ce;substitutio rate;evaluatio a d a alysis 、 , , 1 , 。, :2008-12-09 : (06BaSH024); (5762502107)。 : (1972-), , , , , :。 ·78 · , 。 ① 59.2% , , 、 、 ? ? ? 、 、 , , , , ? , ? , 。 , 、 、 , , , , 、 、 。 、 (一)制度计划实现的替代率