《岩石力学与工程学报》排版格式与论文书写要求-中国矿业杂志.DOC

矿山生产能力可信度的Monte Carlo模拟与应用研究 杨蕾绮1,2，刘文君1,2，文磊3，李兵3 （1.南华大学经济管理学院，湖南 衡阳421001；2.南华大学核能经济与管理研究中心，湖南 衡阳421001；3南华大学核资源工程学院，湖南 衡阳 421001） 摘 要：地下矿山生产能力的设计具有广泛的不确定性，为减少生产能力决策风险，建立了矿山生产能力可信度的Monte Carlo模拟方法。以黑龙江某钼矿首采中段的生产能力方案模拟为例，分别进行了按同时回采矿块数、矿山开采年下降速度和新水平准备时间的生产能力可信度的Monte Carlo模拟，综合分析表明，300×104t/a、500×104t/a、750×104t/a的矿山生产能力方案的可信度分别为100%、99.1%88.4%、84.0%9.85%，模拟结果可为生产能力设计提供参考。 关键词：矿山生产能力可信度；Monte Carlo；同时回采矿块数；年下降速度；新水平准备时间TD214 文献标识码：A 文章编号： On Monte Carlo simulations of the reliability of mine capacity and its application YANG Leiqi1,2, LIU Wenjun1,2, WEN Lei3, LI Bing3 （1. School of School of Economics and Management, University of South China, Hengyang 421001, China; 2.Research Center of Nuclear Energy Economics and Management, University of South China, Hengyang 421001, China; 3.School of Nuclear Resources Engineering , University of South China, Hengyang 421001, China） Abstract：There is great uncertainty in the process of design underground mines capacity, in order to reduce its decision risk, the Monte Carlo simulations of the reliability of mine capacity is established. Taking the capacity simulations of initial mining level of a molybdenum mine in Heilongjiang as an example, the Monte Carlo simulations of the reliability of mine capacity is separately carried out with the design method of the numbers of simultaneously mining block, and the design method of mining decreasing speed per year and the design method of new level preparation time. Comprehensive analysis shows that the reliability of mine capacity of 300×104t/a, 500×104t/a and 750×104t/a are respectively 100%, 99.1%～88.4% and 84.0%～9.85%, and the simulation results can provide a reference for mine capacity design. Keywords：he reliability of mine capacity; Monte Carlo simulation; the numbers of simultaneously mining block; mining decreasing speed per year; new level preparation time. 收稿日期：2017-01-02 基金项目：国家自然科学基金项目（编号：7154001150974076） 第一作者简介：杨蕾绮（1993），E-mail：544528641 @。 通信作者简介：刘文君li