一种适用于运行风险评估的元件修复时间概率分布-中国电机工程学会.PDF

第29 卷 第16 期 中 国 电 机 工 程 学 报 Vol.29 No.16 Jun. 5, 2009 2009 年6 月5 日 Proceedings of the CSEE ©2009 Chin.Soc.for Elec.Eng. 15 0258-8013 (2009) 16-0015-06 TM 77 A 470 40 文章编号： 中图分类号： 文献标志码： 学科分类号： ⋅ 一种适用于运行风险评估的元件修复时间概率分布 宁辽逸，吴文传，张伯明 ( 电力系统及发电设备控制和仿真国家重点实验室(清华大学电机系) ，北京市 海淀区 100084) A Novel Probability Distribution of Component Repair Time for Operation Risk Assessment NING Liao-yi, WU Wen-chuan, ZHANG Bo-ming (State Key Lab of Control and Simulation of Power Systems and Generation Equipments (Dept. of Electrical Engineering, Tsinghua University), Haidian District, Beijing 100084, China) ABSTRACT: Calculating transient state probability of 件。然后，提出一种新的概率分布——“叠加指数分布”， components in future short time duration is one of the key 其密度曲线为“铃形”，可很好地表征故障维修时间的分布 issues in power systems operation risk assessment. Firstly, the 特点，且使瞬时状态概率易于计算。采用现场实际数据的算 impact of repair time’s probability distribution on instantaneous 例结果显示，叠加指数分布能非常好地符合实际样本，得到 state probability of components was evaluated by qualitative 的元件瞬时状态概率也相对来说最真实。 analysis and quantitative calculation in this paper, which proves 关键词：电力系统；运行风险评估；瞬时状态概率；维修时 that exponential distribution which is universally used in the 间；概率分布 reliability research is not suitable to formulate repair time in operation risk assessment. Secondly, three necessary conditions 0 引言 were proposed to choose proper probability distribution for