1模糊综合评判模型原理与方法.DOC

基于熵组合权重的河道整治工程影响的模糊综合评价 姜志成 （江苏省水利工程管理处，210001） II级“较好”。研究表明，在河道整治工程影响评价方面，基于熵组合权重的模糊综合评判法具有较好的科学性和实用性。 关键词：河道整治工程；影响评价；指标体系；熵组合赋权法；模糊综合评判法 中图分类号：TV85 文献标志码：A Fuzzy comprehensive evaluation of the impact of river regulation project based on entropy combination weights Jiang Zhicheng (Water conservancy project management office of Jiangsu Province ,Nanjing,210001) Abstract:According to the characteristics of the impact assessment of river regulation project.A fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method combining qualitative and quantitative analysis was used to construct the impact assessment model of river regulation project.Evaluation index system was established by taking four aspects into consideration,including influence of economic development,social development,social environment and influence on rational utilization of natural resources.Entropy combination weight method was used to determine the weight of the indexs.Taking the river regulation project of Puyang River in the Yellow River as the research object,impact of the project is analyzed and calculated by the established model and the result shows that its grade is I described “good” .It is seen that fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method based on entropy combination weight has good practicability and scientificalness in impact assessment of river regulation project. Key words:river regulation project;impact assessment;index system;entropy combination weight method；fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method 我国是世界上河流最多的国家之一，历史上长江、黄河、淮河等大河频发洪灾，给两岸人民的生命财产造成了巨大的损失，数量众多、分布广泛的中小河流造成的洪涝灾害也不在少数[1]。河道整治是河流防洪治理中的一种，除具有显著的防洪作用外，还可以大大改善长期以来由于河流破坏带来的诸多问题，能有效减少冲滩塌岸现象，有利于稳定滩涂、改善滩区的生产生活条件，提高滩区的土地利用价值，因而能产生巨大的社会效益[2-3]。对河道整治工程的进行评价，可以论证其实施的成效和存在的不足，因而具有重要的理论与实践意义。 目前，关于河道整治影响评价的相关研究甚少，评价指标体系也很不完善[4-]。本文将法与模糊综合评判法相结合建立评价模型，从对经济发展影响、社会发展影响、社会环境影响、四个方面建立评价指标体系，并将此模型用于黄河濮阳段河道整治工程的评价。 1模糊综合评判法是运用模糊数学方法，根据模糊数学的隶属度理论把定性评价转化为定量评价，对受到多种因素制约的事物或对象做出一个总体的评价，使得模糊现象清晰化[8]，既能充分体现评价过程模糊性，又能尽量减少主观判断带来的弊端[9]。 权重系数是指在评价过程中，对评价指标在重要程度