中国菲利普斯曲线毕 的业论文.doc

安徽财经大学 毕 业 论 文 学 院 国际经济贸易学院 班 级 081国际商务0班 学 号 200829016 姓 名 XXX 题 目改革开放以来中国的菲利普斯曲线 指导教师 徐德云 教授 （姓名及职称） 中国的菲利普斯曲线 The Phillips Curve in China 国际经济贸易学院2008（）班 200829016 指导老师：徐德云 教授 内容摘要：1958年，菲利普斯根据英国1867－1957年间失业率和货币工资变动率的经验统计资料，提出了一条用以表示失业率和货币工资变动率之间交替关系的曲线。  Abstract: In 1958, according to the experience statistics of the unemployment rate and the change rate of currency wage from 1867 to 1957 in British, Phillips put forward a curve which is used to represent the relationship between the unemployment rate and the change rate of currency wage. This paper is to check the Phillips curve which is based on the data from 1979 to 2011, and found that Phillips curve there in China. Then analyse the different shape of the Phillips curve in China, and explain the causes of the Phillips curve. The analysis based on the Chinese national condition, we can draw the conclusion that in China, if the government want to adjust the relationship between the inflation and the unemployment, as a regulator, the government should to strengthen the strength of microeconomic control, and know how to control the expectation, not to let the prices too high, and in order to keep the stability of the macroeconomic, the government should use different policy to coordination, carry out the comprehensive measures. Besides, there are so many other factors can affect the relationship between the inflation and unemployment rate, but this paper did not concern. Key words: China, Inflation, unemployment Rate, Phillips Curve 目　录 一、导言 1 二、基础理论概述 2 （一）菲利普斯曲线的发展 2 （二）理论模型 3 三、菲利普斯曲线在中国的验证 3 四、中国菲利普斯曲线的态势及成因 4 （一）中国的菲利普斯曲线的形状 4 （二）成因分析 5 （三）基本结论和启示 6 五、结束语 8 （一）政策建议 8 （二）文中存在的不足 9 参考文献 10 附表 12 一、导言 菲利普斯曲线虽然是根据英国的经验所作出的模型，但它的意义在于不仅指出了失业率与货币工资率的关系，而且在短期内菲利普斯曲线所表现的通货膨胀与失业之间的取舍关系表明经济决策者的两个目标是低通货膨胀和低失业这两个目标常常是冲突的，即通过发行货币可以刺激经济的繁荣，从而降低失业率。 菲利普斯曲线提供了将失业与通货膨胀关联起来的方程式, 填补了