城域网P2P流量预测模型研究讲述.pdf

94 2010 ，46 （22 ） Computer Engineering and Applications 计算机工程与应用 城域网P2P 流量预测模型研究 1 1 1 1 2 董智超 ，袁小坊 ，王 东 ，裴 唯 ，谢高岗 1 1 1 1 2 DONG Zhi-chao ，YUAN Xiao-fang ，WANG Dong ，PEI Wei ，XIE Gao-gang 1.湖南大学 计算机与通信学院，长沙 410082 2.中国科学院 计算技术研究所 下一代互联网研究中心，北京 100190 1.College of Computer and Communication ，Hunan University ，Changsha 410082 ，China 2.Next Generation Internet Research Center ，Institute of Computing Technology ，Chinese Academy of Sciences ，Beijing 100190，China E-mail ：dzc8512@ 163.com DONG Zhi-chao ，YUAN Xiao-fang ，WANG Dong ，et al.Research on P2P traffic prediction models in metro area net- work.Computer Engineering and Applications ，2010 ，46 （22 ）：94-98. Abstract ：Traffic measurement and modeling is essential to planning and management of existing IP networks ，as well as to designing next generation networks.In this paper ，a new P2P traffic prediction model based on wavelet transform and times series analysis is introduced.The original traffic metric series are decomposed and reconstructed into several branches by wavelet.These branches ，stabilized by a statistic method ，are predicted by ARIMA or ARMA models respectively according to their different features.The final predicted results can be obtained by reconstructing these predicted values of branches and an optimizing method with the use of dynamic exponential smoothing model.Experimental results show that forecasting trends are very similar with the actual flow curves ，and the Mean Relative Error （MRE ）is around 4.04% ，more accurate than the traditional methods. Key words ：traffic prediction ；Peer to Peer （P2P ）；wavelet analysis ；Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average （ARIMA ）model 摘 要：网络流量测量与建模对网络管理有着重要的意义。为了合理规划P2P 网络资源，提出了一种基于小波与时间序列分析 的P2P 流量预测模型。通过对原始序列的小波分解与单支重构，并使用了所提出的一种统计分析方法对流量进行平稳化处理， 针对各分支特点分别采用ARMA 和ARI