非统计学方法在景观格局变化研究中的应用 - 水土保持通报.PDF

28 2 Vol.28, No.2 2008 4 Bulletin of Soil and Water Conservation Apr., 2008 1, 2 1 刘 明 , 王克林 ( 1. , 410125; 2. , 100039) : ,, !Panel Data , ,, ,Panel Data ,, , : ; ; Panel Date ; : B : 1000 288X(2008)02 0058 05 : O211.61, X4 Application of Nonstatistical Methods to Research on Landscape Pattern Change 1, 2 1 LIU Ming , WANG elin ( 1. I ns titute of S ubtr op ical A g r icul tur e, Chinese A cademy of Sciences , Changs ha, H u∀ nan 410125, China; 2. Gr ad uate S chool of Chinese A cademy of S ciences , Beij ing 100039, China Abstract: There are some common problems in the study of driving forces of landscape pattern change and ec ological environment effects, such as the uncertainty of data, insufficiency of sample of the time series data, and noise! disturbance. After these questions are described, this paper explains the principles and applica tion background of gray analysis method, maximum likelihood method, and Panel Data model. T hen, dy namic of yearly runoff into the Dongting Lake, hydrology response to change of landscape pattern in Xiangjiang River basin, and driving forces of landscape pattern change in Dongting Lake watershed are select ed to test the result in theuse of these nonstatistical methods. Results show that the methods are effective, specially when they are combined with the classical statistics methods such as correlation analysis and princi pal components analysis. Therefore, the research ef