城市天然气管道风险特征及肯特法的改进_王凯全.pdf

1 8 9 V o l. 1 8N o. 9 2 0 0 8 9 Ch ina Sa fety Sc ience Journa l Sep . 2 0 0 8 * 1 1 1 2 王凯全 教授 王 宁 张 弛 卢 泽 高级工程师 ( 1 江苏工业学院环境与安全工程系, 常州 213164 2 常州港华燃气有限公司, 常州 2 13003 : 620. 5030 :X937 : A : (BS2007028) 根据城市高压天然气 道特点, 将适合于城市天然气 道风险分析的肯特评分法加以 改进, 包括调整评分项目和事故因素权重, 使其成为适于城市天然气 道的风险分析法将改进后 的肯特评分法应用于常州 21 km 高压天然气 道的风险评价, 得出 8 个相对高风险 段, 其分析结 果可作为安全 理人员合理分配维护资源的理论依据工程应用实例证明: 改进后的肯特法具有较 强的可行性, 是城市高压天然气 道风险评估的有效工具 城市; 天然气 道; 肯特评分法; 层次分析法(AH P ; 权重; 风险分析 R isk Character ist ics o f U rban N atura l G as P ipeline and Im provem ent o f the K ent M ethod 1 1 1 2 WANG Kaiquan, Prof. WANG Ning HANG Chi LU e, Senior Engineer ( 1 Departm ent o f Env ironm enta l Safety Eng ineering, J iangsu Po ly technic Un iversity, Changzhou 213164, China 2 Changzhou Ganghua Gas Com pany L mi ited, Changzhou 213003, China Abstract: The Kent G rading m ethod, wh ich w as suitab le for pipe line analysis in cit ies, w as firstly mi proved in the item s o f grading and factor w e ights according to urban p ipeline character istics. Then, it w as applied to the risk assessm ent o f a 21k ilom eterlong h ighpressure na tura l gas pipe line, and 8 p ipe sec tionsw ith relat ively h igh risksw ere obtained. T he analysis resu lt can be taken as theoretica l basis for safe ty m anagem ent sta ff to reasonably d istribute m a