中国不会让人民币贬值（China will not devalue the renminbi）.doc

中国不会让人民币贬值（China will not devalue the renminbi） This article sees finance and economics magazine total 227th publication date: at 23:14 on December 22, 2008, altogether has 15 comments Font size: China still has plenty of room for fiscal policy; the devaluation of the renminbi may worsen the labour market Xie Guozhong / Wen Recently, the market expectations of the RMB reversed, contrary to the expected appreciation, devaluation is expected to rise. In my opinion, the US dollar will remain stable against the RMB over the next 12 months. But in 2009, the renminbi and the dollar will fall against other currencies. In 1998, the fixed exchange rate system pegged to the dollar played a stabilizing role in the economy, although they rose simultaneously with other currencies. In 2009, history will repeat itself, and the fixed exchange rate pegged to the dollar will once again play a stabilizing role - but this time it will depreciate relative to other currencies. Wake up nightmare in emerging market currencies Every emerging market currency faces downward pressure after a round of appreciation. Because the potential room for appreciation of the currency can be used to offset the risk of investment in emerging market countries, a lower exchange rate will help emerging market countries attract investment and develop economies. Among them, the lower exchange rate is the nominal exchange rate, or the exchange rate calculated at purchasing power parity, and the exchange rate is relatively low. Currency discounts in emerging markets are decreasing as the economy improves. The lower the per capita income, the cheaper the money. Gradually, the world emerged emerging market euphoria (emerging market countries), subversion of this relationship. In the past three years, the BRICs have become the focus of this upsurge. Various theories have been invented to demonstrate that the currencies of these countries have actually appreciated. The boom in emerging market countries has evolved in