电力系统负荷预测和方法(外文翻译).doc

Power system load forecasting methods and characteristics of Abstract: The load forecasting in power system planning and operation play an important role, with obvious economic benefits, in essence, the electricity load forecasting market demand forecast. In this paper, a systematic description and analysis of a variety of load forecasting methods and characteristics and that good load forecasting for power system has become an important means of modern management. Keywords: power system load forecasting electricity market construction Planning 1.Introduction Load forecasting demand for electricity from a known starting to consider the political, economic, climate and other related factors, the future demand for electricity to make predictions. Load forecast includes two aspects: on the future demand (power) projections and future electricity consumption (energy) forecast. Electricity demand projections decision generation, transmission and distribution system, the sic of new Capacity; power generating equipment determine the type of prediction (.such as peaking units, base load units, etc}. Load forecasting purposes is to provide load conditions and the level of development, while identifying the various supply areas, each year planning for the power consumption for maximum power load and the load of planning the overall level of development of each plan year to determine the load composition. 2. load forecasting methods and characteristics of 2.1 Unit Consumption Act Output of products in accordance with national arrangements, planning and electricity intensity value to determine electricity demand. Sub-Unit Consumption Act; Product Unit Consumption; and the value of Unit Consumption Act; two. The projection of load before the key is to determine the appropriate value of the product unit consumption or unit consumption. Judging from Chinas actual situation, the general rule is the product unit consumption increased year by yea