图表21 均衡汇率.ppt

The Determination of Exchange Rates Chapter 2 CHAPTER 2: THE DETERMINATION OF EXCHANGE RATES CHAPTER OVERVIEW: I. EQUILIBRIUM EXCHANGE RATES均衡即期匯率 II. ROLE OF CENTRAL BANKS中央銀行干預. 匯率 某一個國家的貨幣以另外一個國家貨幣(通常稱為參考貨幣reference currency)來計價時的價格。 即期匯率(spot rate)：於貨幣交易時立即交割的價格。 遠期匯率(forward rate)：是指對未來特定日期要交割的海外兌換的報價。 匯率 2/2 Equilibrium Exchange Rates B. How Americans Purchase German Goods 1. Foreign Currency Demand -derived from the demand for a foreign country’s goods, services, and financial assets. e.g. The demand for German goods by Americans The Demand for € in the U.S. Equilibrium Exchange Rates B.2. Foreign Currency Supply: a. derived from the foreign country’s demand for local goods. b. They must convert their currency to purchase. e.g. German demand for US goods means Germans convert euros to US $ in order to buy. The Supply of € in the U.S. $/ € Equilibrium Exchange Rates B.3. Equilibrium Exchange Rate occurs where the quantity supplied equals the quantity demanded of a foreign currency at a specific local price. The $/ € Equilibrium Rate Equilibrium Exchange Rates C. How Exchange Rates Change 1. Increased demand as more foreign goods are demanded, more of the foreign currency is demand. 2. In other words, the price of the foreign currency in local currency increases. Equilibrium Exchange Rates C.3. Home Currency Depreciation a. Foreign currency grows more valuable than the home currency. b. The foreign currency’s value has appreciated against the home currency. The US$ Depreciates When 影響均衡匯率的因素 1/2 通貨膨脹率 利率 經濟成長率 政治與經濟的風險 預期心理 影響均衡匯率的因素 1/2 通貨膨脹率 利率 經濟成長率 政治與經濟的風險 預期心理 對均衡匯率之影響 相對利率 實質利率(real interest rate)：等於是名目利率減去通貨膨脹率。 較高的實質利率會讓貨幣升值。 相對經濟成長率：經濟成長會導致其貨幣也走強。 政經風險：低風險的貨幣－就是政經情勢較穩定的國家－會比高風險的貨幣得到比較高的評價。 Equilibrium Exchange Rates C.5 Currency Appreciation = (e1 - e0)/ e0 where e0 = old currency v