不确定条件下投资者的行为分析.doc

不确定条件下投资者的行为分析 摘 要 投资的决策分析是投经常的部分，投资金额，时间，投资就。经济下，大量存在随机和非随机的变量，经济会根据，经济的，，市场变化的，经济，微观经济利润大化最大化的表明，对不确定决策的不仅有的，具有的理论本文对投资决策进行了，了传统投资方法与实物期权方法的不足，在上对投资决策的进行了Investor behavior under uncertainty analysis ABSTRACT Decision and analysis of investment is the investment activities of each enterprise in the most important and most frequently part of a fiscal year will often encounter.Because of the amount of investment of a project is not small,longer duration,once the investment can not change,it should be comprehensive consideration of various factors of rational investment decision.However, investors in the investment process of the project faces many uncertainties,in the current economic environment,there are a lot of random and non random variation,Economic factors will change according to the different market environment,The economic environment for economic factors may greatly change,therefore there is not a fixed optimal investment decision rules.Both the traditional NPV method and real options method,cannot under any circumstances of the project to make an accurate assessment of the value,therefore, the introduction of the game theory into the analysis of investment decision should be made closer to the realistic assumption,to enable investors to practice for more convenient,induction of changes in the market direction,to increase the rate of economic growth,In order to micro economic factors the pursuit of profit more and energy maximum results.Facts have shown that,The uncertain decision research not only has the profound practical significance,and has the theory significance not shallow.This paper starts were summarized and interpretation of uncertain investment decision method under the condition of,lack of proven traditional investment method and real options method,in this respect on the current investment decision means and ways to the forefront achievements in detail,and the behavior of investors in Chinese capital market makes a simple analysis. Keywords