关于双层同构贝叶斯网络模型的配电网可靠性评估_王成山.pdf

第 29 卷 第 7 期 电 网 技 术 Vol. 29 No. 7 2005 年 4 月 Power System Technology Apr. 2005 文章编号：1000-3673 （2005 ）07-0041-06 中图分类号：TM732 文献标识码：A 学科代码：470·4051 基于双层同构贝叶斯网络模型的配电网可靠性评估 王成山，谢莹华 （天津大学电气与自动化工程学院，天津市 南开区 300072 ） A NEW BAYESIAN NETWORK MODEL FOR DISTRIBUTION SYSTEM RELIABILITY EVALUATION BASED ON DUAL ISOMORPHIC BAYESIAN NETWORK MODEL WANG Cheng-shan ，XIE Ying-hua （School of Electrical Engineering and Automation，Tianjin University，Nankai District ，Tianjin 300072，China ） ABSTRACT ：The authors proposed a method for reliability 络的可靠性模型，求取可靠性指标，识别网络中的 evaluation and re-evaluation of distribution network by dual 薄弱环节，从而寻求提高配电网可靠性水平的途径。 isomorphic Bayesian network model. On the basis of feeder 配电网的可靠性评估方法可分为模拟法和解 partitioning and combining with failure-mode-and-effect 析法两类。模拟法[1,2]可以考虑参数的时变特性，求 analysis (FEMA) a Bayesian network was constituted. By means of forward reasoning of Bayesian network the reliability 取可靠性指标的概率分布，但为满足精度要求，计 of load points and distribution network were evaluated and the 算时间较长。解析法[3-10] 的计算相对比较简单，求 reliability indices could be obtained. By means of backward 解速度较快，最基本的解析法是故障模式影响分析 reasoning of Bayesian network the what-if study was carried 法[3]，在配电网的可靠性评估中得到了广泛应用； out and the weak points in distribution network were identified. 但该方法要求建立故障模式后果表，计算量也随着 The outage probability indices as well as outage frequency indices could be respectively calculated by dual model. The 元件数的增长而成指数倍增长。为减少计算量，馈 proposed method could be used to evaluate the